Double Dutch, 9th May 2015
Despite Regulation cruising home for an 11 lengths victory at 7/2 BOG (SP 3/1) at Market Rasen on Friday, our recent winning run came to an end after we failed to even make the first two home at Chester, filling 3rd and 4th places this time.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Wanting : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Snap Shots : 4th at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Regulation : WON at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Yes Daddy : 5th at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
570 winning selections from 1986 = 28.70%
179 winning bets in 515 days = 34.76%
P/L : +102.66pts (+9.97% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last picks of the week…
Nancy from Nairobi was far from disgraced in defeat in two Group races last season before going on to win for the first time. This clearly isn’t to the standard of those runs and a Class 2 handicap should be well within the reach of a horse only beaten by 5 and 6 lengths in such better company. She made her seasonal reappearance three weeks ago, when runnnig really well despite a 20 weeks absence to finish just a neck behind the unexposed 3/1 fav Mahsoob who is now 2 from 2.
Nancy is fully entitled/expected to come on for that run and can be backed at 3/1 BOG, but I do fear she’s going to be the bridesmaid once again, probably behind Flag War, trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by William Buick. Both trainer and jockey are in good form and both have good records here at Lingfield.
Flag War is lightly raced with just five starts, winning twice, including his own seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton four weeks ago, He’s by Dubawi, so a step up in trip shouldn’t bother him (he’ll probably want further in time and has actually already won over 1m4f) and he’s the most likely here at 2/1 BOG.
Breenainthemycra had shown signs of coming into form when finishing 5th at Navan three weeks ago, he was subsequently disqualified for his jockey not weighing in, but he had run to within two lengths of the winner. Since then he is two from two, having scored at both Limerick and Clonmel, with the latter race coming as recently as Thursday, when he was pretty comfortable in a 3 lengths win on soft ground and with looking like he still has a bit more to give, he could well go in again at 2/1 BOG.
The main danger should come from Love The Feeling who was a staying-on third last time out, when just 2 lengths behind Breenainthemycra in that first win I mentioned at Limerick. 11.5f was probably too short that day for a horse that has won over hurdles and had run adequately well in a couple of Group standard hurdles. Heavy ground might turn this into an attritional battle of stamina and that would suit Love The Feeling as she reopposes the favourite on better terms and is worth considering at 9/2 BOG here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Flag War / Breenainthemycra @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Flag War / Love The Feeling @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : SkyBet)
Nancy from Nairobi / Breenainthemycra @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Hills)
Nancy from Nairobi / Love The Feeling @ 21/1 (3/1 & 9/2 : Hills)