SotD : Monday 11/05/2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th May 2015

Tadqeeq was a disappointing 4th of just five runners at Haydock on Saturday and I’m still not sure which peeved me the most between the jockey’s antics and the lack of fight shown by the horse late on.

Jockey Dane O’Neill was partly culpable in a coming together with Graham Lee’s mount Storm Rock. The latter went for a gap, which although tight, was a valid target, but our jockey chose to steer our horse into Storm Rock to deny him a clear passage.

Based on the way the two horses recovered/finished from the collision, it didn’t affect our placing, but it quite possibly cost Graham Lee a winner and I didn’t like that tactic. These are highly tuned, valuable livestock, not fairground bumper cars.

As for Tadqeeq, I’m not sure about him at all now. One win from six and rapidly gaining a reputation for not seeing races out, he’s one I’d avoid for a while.

Anyway, rant over, on to Monday, where I’ll aim to continue last week’s excellent progress (3 from 6 for 7.17pts) with a selection running in the…

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7.00 Towcester:

At the age of 31 and with just 215 runners to date (2 more today!) since taking a licence in mid-2013, Ben Pauling is emerging as another of the new breed of young, hungry trainers. To date, he has had 25 winners (13.5% SR) and whilst he’s a new trainer, he’s hardly wet behind the ears, having served as an assistant to the great Nicky Henderson for five years and if you can’t pick up a trick or two from Hendo in five years, you’re in the wrong game!

What you might not know about Ben Pauling is that he actually won Britain’s Young Engineer of the Year Award while still at school for inventing a pallet-wrapping device that did not involve a fork lift, conjured up in his A-level design classes.

As a direct result of the award he was offered a commission in the Royal Engineers and places to read engineering at three different universities, but ecioded to do things his own way and went to Reading!

There he studied land management and successfully ran the student union before starting riding in point to pojnt races, but his riding career was sadly curtailed when he lost an eye. So he spent a year breaking in yearlings before joining the Henderson team.

And now as a trainer, he is quickly making name for himself in handicap contests. 17 of his 25 winners to date have come from just 50 NH handicappers sent off at odds of evens to 7/1, with the resultant 34% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 28.6pts at an ROI of 57.2%.

His chasers in the Evens to 10/1 odds range are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 18.6pts (+64% ROI), which sets up nicely for today, as does the booking of David Bass to take the reins. When David has ridden Ben’s sub-10/1 chasers in the past he has won 5 of 167 (31.25% SR) races, producing profits of 8.91pts (+55.7% ROI) and quite remarkably the team is 4 from 4 here at Towcester, all over today’s course and distance!

Two of those C&D wins were with Newton Thistle and the other two with today’s selection, the 4/1 BOG Cosway Spirit, who…

…is 3/5 here at Towcester having finished 11451 all over this track and trip.
…is 2/5 under David Bass
…has won 3 times and been runner-up twice from 8 starts at 11/2 or shorter
…is 115122 below 7/2 (where I think we’ll end up!)
…has finished 05115122 when running after 11 to 25 days since his last run
…has finished 41164512 in races of 7 to 11 runners

You could also take some confidence from a run of results reading 11512 when priced at 7/2 or shorter in fields of 7 to 11 runners after a break of 11 to 25 since his last run (ie today’s conditions!).

Cosway Spirit looks a good bet here to me and the 4/1 BOG on offer from Boylesports looks big. If that’s all gone, then 7/2 BOG is widely available and that’s still a decent price (in my opinion,. of course!). Please do check the odds are still there, though : do this by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 7.00 Towcester

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Here is today’s racecard.

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