Double Dutch, 11th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 11th May 2015

No joy on Saturday, I’m afraid, as Nancy from Nairobi’s half-length defeat at 9/2 as a runner-up at Lingfield proved to be the “highlight(?)” of our day. 11/4 favourite Flag War was a further 2.5 lengths and 2 places further back in the same race.

This rendered the race at Gowran Park some 80 minutes later largely irrelevant, but there was always the chance of a face-saving winner and who knows, maybe even a forecast?

Such hope were dashed before the stalls even opened as my main fancy Breenainthemycra had already been withdrawn from the contest, leaving just Love The Feeling to carry the DD flag.

11th of 12 and over 30 lengths off the pace isn’t a good result by any stretch of the imagination and after as poor a day as we’ve had for a while, it’s probably better to look forwards rather than back, but…

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Nancy from Nairobi : 2nd at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Flag War : 4th at 11/4 (adv 2/1)
Breenainthemycra : non-runner (adv 2/1)
Love The Feeling : 11th at 7/2 (adv 9/2)

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Results to date:
570 winning selections from 1990 = 28.64%
179 winning bets in 516 days = 34.69%

Stakes: 1031.50pts
Returns: 1132.16pts

P/L : +100.66pts (+9.76% ROI)


And onto Monday…

3.40 Musselburgh:

Alan Swinbank’s 8 winners from 39 in the last four weeks shows his yard is in good health at present and if you tie that in with his good record here at this track, you have to give any of his Musselburgh runners a second thought. The fact that Ralphy Lad is his only runner of the day and comes here seeking a hat-trick inside 18 days makes him of particular interest.

Ralphy Lad is up 6lbs for a pretty comfortable win at Hamilton eight days ago, but is due to go up by more than that when reassessed and is likely to be weighted out of winning again for a while once that happens. The manner of that last victory suggests he can go in again at 9/4 BOG, but if finding the combination of extra weight and distance too much, he could be in danger from Titus Bolt.

Musselburgh has become something of a second home for this horse, with each of his last five flat outings coming on this track, finishing 16312 with his record over 12.5/13f reading 1312 on a mixture of both good and soft ground. So none of track, trip or conditions should pose a problem here and he’s in good nick, making Titus Bolt a real danger to the main selection at what might prove to be a generous 7/2 BOG.


4.05 Wolverhampton:

I think it’s probably best to side wth the two last time out winners here in a race that doesn’t look too deep on quality. Mark Johnston has a decent record here at Wolverhampton over the years and in the 7/2 BOG Cassandane, he has a lightly raced filly who was successful at Bath 18 days ago, despite not having run for 205 days and was making only her fifth start.

She beat the re-opposing Miss Inga Sock by three parts of a length that day and although the latter is better off at the weights today, Cassandane looked to have plenty left at Bath and should cope with a 6lb rise (halved by her jockey’s claim) here. I’d expect her to come on for that run and provided she “gets” the new surface, I think she’ll reconfirm those placings, with the bigger danger coming from Sir Mark Prescott’s runner Merritt Island.

Her profile is similar to Cassandane‘s to be honest: just four starts, won for the first time last time out at Bath after a lengthy absence (193 days) and is up 6lbs for her efforts. The Prescott yard also have a good record here at Wolverhampton and with the string coming into some decent form (5122118 this month), they’ll be looking for more winners to keep the ball rolling. Merritt Island is, however, the yard’s only runner today and somebody hasd to pay for the diesel, so expect a decent run here at 2/1 BOG!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Ralphy Lad / Merritt Island @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Ralphy Lad / Cassandane @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet, Paddy & Hills)
Titus Bolt / Merritt Island @ 12/1 (10/3 & 2/1 : Coral)
Titus Bolt / Cassandane @ 18.50/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Coral)

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