Stat of the Day, 12th May 2015
We might not have landed a winner at Towcester on Monday evening, but it certainly wasn’t down to a lack of effort on behalf of either jockey David Bass or our horse Cosway Spirit.
Less resilient horses and/or jockeys would have thrown the towel in before the start of the third mile, it was that tough out there. But the partnership persevered and were almost at walking pace when crossing the line in second place at 3/1, a point shorter than advised.
All that happened was that we found one too good for us and there’s little you can do about that. Anyway, onto Tuesday and the…
And a 4/1 BOG bet on handicap debutant Sacrificial who steps up half a furlong from a win over a mile on soft ground at Leopardstown four weeks ago, when he finished 3.5 lengths clear of Tuk Tuk, who has since turned back out and won well.
Sacrificial is trained by Ger Lyons and if you had backed each of Ger’s runners in Irish Flat handicaps since the start of 2011, you’d have had 62 winners from 378 bets (16.4% SR) with a £10 level stake on each of them netting a cool £1218 profit at an ROI of 32.2%.
Those priced in the 2/1 to 10/1 banding have won 54 of 248 (21.8% SR) for 121.7pts (+49.1% ROI) profit, whilst those competing for prizes of £13,000 or less have won 58 of 314 (18.5% SR) for 141.8pts (+45.2% ROI).
Those entered in sub-£13k races and priced at 2/1 to 7/1 are 46/171 (26.9% SR) for 106.4pts (+62.2% ROI)
This is Sacrificial’s handicap debut and since the start of the 2011 season, Ger Lyons’ handicap debutants are 12/65 (18.5% SR) for 28.9pts profit at an ROI of 44.5%. Closer inspection of these 65 runners reveals the following data…
Those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 30.5pts (+117.3% ROI).
Those competing for less than £8,000 prize money are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 43.5pts (+94.5% ROI).
Those running at the same trip as LTO or stepping up by no more than 3f are 9/41 (22% SR) for 39.8pts (+97% ROI)
Ger Lyons’ handicap debutants running at the same trip or up to 3 furlongs more than last time out at odds of 11/2 or shorter for a prizer of less than £8,000 are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 31.3pts (+261.2% ROI) profit.
Sacrifical was sired by Showcasing, whose offspring, to date, have won 51 of their 284 (18% SR) races for profits of 136.7pts at a very healthy ROI of 48.1%, with those sent off at 8/1 or shorter winning 45 of 156 (28.9% SR) for 64.3pts (+41.2% ROI) whilst those who are competing for a winners’ cheque of less than £8,000 are 40 from 205 (19.5% SR) for 134.5pts (+65.6% ROI)
Showcasing’s offspring competing for prizes of less than £8,000 at odds of 8/1 and shorter are 36/114 (31.6% SR) for 75.4pts (+66.1% ROI).
Sacrificial only got home by a neck last time out, having looked rusty mid-race from a six-month lay off. He had travelled much stronger in previous races and the grit shown last time out also suggests progression is likely. Tne beauty of a narrow win is that he has been given a very workable mark of 87 today. Yes, he’s top weight, but he’s been consistent so far and we know he handles soft ground.
All things considered, I think the 4/1 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook about Sacrificial looks very generous and there’s still plenty of juice in the 7/2 BOG being offered elsewhere, but do check for for yourself by…
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