Double Dutch, 12th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th May 2015

Close, but no cigar was the outcome from Monday’s efforts.

Ralphy Lad was, as I’d expected, pretty comfortable in a two-length victory at Musselburgh, defying both a rise in weight and a step up in trip to land a hat-trick inside 18 days, giving us a good crack at the double 25 minutes later at Wolverhampton and we cam within a half length of landing it.

Both our runners had drifted markedly, but the horses don’t know that and Merritt Island (4/1 from 2/1) set about showing why he was the morning favourite, before the money came for Bitttern. As it was, our boy saw off Bittern, but raced quite wide off the home turn in doing so.

This left the inside wide open and eventual winner Edge of Heaven steamed along the rail to nab the lead late on, denying us a 15.25/1 success in the process.

Monday’s results were as follows:

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Ralphy Lad : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Titus Bolt : 5th at 9/4 (adv 10/3)
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Merritt Island : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 2/1)
Cassandane : 5th at 17/2 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
571 winning selections from 1994 = 28.64%
179 winning bets in 517 days = 34.62%

Stakes: 1033.50pts
Returns: 1132.16pts

P/L : +98.66pts (+9.55% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Profits have dipped back below the 100pt barrier, so I could do with a pair of winners from…

2.35 Wincanton:

In a race where the runners’ past form looks littered with as many letters (F, P, U etc!) as numbers, I’m In Charge looks the safest/most reliable on offer. He is admittedly up 9lbs from his last run, but still gets weight from all his rivals here. He was a comfortable 6 length winner at Fontwell 11 days ago taking his handicap chasing record to 113P31. He’s 113 here at Wincanton (all over this trip), likes the better ground and gets on well with today’s jockey. He’s 3/6 with the tongue tie in place and I’d expect him to win this this at 3/1 BOG (Coral)if he gets round unscathed.

Should the main pick falter for any reason, then we need a Plan B and Days Ahead marginally gets my vote. He was showing signs of a return to form with back to back runner-up finishes here over course and distance, the latter of the two by just 1.5 lengths in a rough race where he was bumped several times and hampered late on. He’s had one more run since those efforts, coming down three fom homw when making a really good fist of it and he could make this interesting at 4/1 BOG, if he stays on his feet.

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3.00 Limerick:

Totally Dominant looks the pick of the seven here, a very consistent performer so far with 3 wins, 3 places and a 4th (of 15) to his name from just seven starts and represents the all-conquering Mullins/Walsh partnership. Needless to say that both jockey and trainer both have good personal records here at the track, as well as in a team and both have been amongst the winners of late.

The horse hasn’t been overworked and will look to pick up where he left off after a short break since winning on heavy ground at Thurles at the back end of January. Conditions are better here and the 11/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor looks appealing, providing he can see off the challenge from Pyromaniac who has had the benefit of a couple of runs back since his own winter break, making the frame at both Cork (1m2f flat, soft to heavy) and more recently at Punchestown in a decent 2m hurdle 11 days ago: both defeats were by less than three lengths.

Pyromaniac is priced up at 3/1 BOG here with Bet365 and it’s worth remembering that back in November, he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 contest, 1.25 lengths ahead of The Govaness (Listed winner since), before competing in a Grade 3 at Ascot before his break. A run approaching that seen at Cheltenham could/should be more than enough to put him right in the mix today off a mark 4lbs lower than the Cheltenham run.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

I’m In Charge / Totally Dominant @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
I’m In Charge/ Pyromaniac @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfair SB)
Days Ahead / Totally Dominant @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Days Ahead / Pyromaniac @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Bet365)

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