Stat of the Day, 13th May 2015
We did pretty well out of one of our rare forays to Ireland for SotD on Tuesday evening, as our 4/1 shot Sacrificial won at an SP of 9/4.
The official margin was a neck, but I think our boy had enough in reserve to win by further had he wanted to, despite conceding bundles of weight all round. A win is nice, but to get paid out at 178% of SP is even better and I really can’t stress the importance of getting the BOG prices.
I know that you probably didn’t all get that 4/1, but there still plenty of 7/2 until around 9.45am and 10/3 until lunchtime.
Wednesday sees us back in England for the…
And a 7/2 BOG bet with the Betfair Sportsbook for the 4yr old gelding maiden of 7 races Elite Force.
Elite Force is trained by Roger Charlton and Roger’s handicap record here at bath is 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) for 18.2pts at SP, and we never back as low as SP! SP does, however, still return an ROI of 23.8% and we know we can better that with BOG prices.
At trips of 8 to 13 furlongs, Roger’s handicappers are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 20.2pts (+48.1% ROI) here, of which those running at this Class 5 level are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 19.9pts (+82.9% ROI).
Richard Hughes takes the ride today and this is a positive sign for me, as he rarely rides the Charlton horses. In fact since 2010, he has only ridden in 15 handicaps for Mr Charlton, but has won 5 times (33.3% SR) for 25pts profit at an ROI of 166.7%! There’s obviously a big winner in there skewing the data, so with a simple odds cap of 5/1, we have 4 winners from 9 (44.4% SR) and 3.34pts (+37.1% ROI) profit : still very useful.
Hughesie also rides the Bath track well, having won 22 of 81 handicap races (27.2% SR) here since the start of the 2010 season, generating level stakes profits of 39.3pts at an ROI of 48.6% along the way. And when sent off in the 2/1 to 9/1 price range, he is 18/61 (29.5% SR) for 49.8pts (+81.6% ROI).
Elite Force was a close runner-up LTO, beaten by just a length and three quarters at Wolverhampton fifteen days ago, making him just qualify for my Top4 LTO microsystem. Basically certain trainers do well when sending a horse back out within 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out and Roger Charlton is one of them.
His top 4 LTO runners are 40/136 (29.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+20.4% ROI) since 2009 and those who failed to win last time, but were beaten by less than 4 lengths went on to win 23 of 61 (37.7% SR) subsequent outings for profits of 57.1pts (+93.7% ROI).
As of 9.15pm on Tuesday evening the 7/2 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook about Elite Force was the best available with 3/1 BOG seeming the generally offered odds. You can see what your preferred outlet has on the book by…
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