Stat of the Day, 13th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2015

We did pretty well out of one of our rare forays to Ireland for SotD on Tuesday evening, as our 4/1 shot Sacrificial won at an SP of 9/4.

The official margin was a neck, but I think our boy had enough in reserve to win by further had he wanted to, despite conceding bundles of weight all round. A win is nice, but to get paid out at 178% of SP is even better and I really can’t stress the importance of getting the BOG prices.

I know that you probably didn’t all get that 4/1, but there still plenty of 7/2 until around 9.45am and 10/3 until lunchtime.

Wednesday sees us back in England for the…

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5.45 Bath:

And a 7/2 BOG bet with the Betfair Sportsbook for the 4yr old gelding maiden of 7 races Elite Force.

Elite Force is trained by Roger Charlton and Roger’s handicap record here at bath is 17 winners from 64 (26.6% SR) for 18.2pts at SP, and we never back as low as SP! SP does, however, still return an ROI of 23.8% and we know we can better that with BOG prices.

At trips of 8 to 13 furlongs, Roger’s handicappers are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 20.2pts (+48.1% ROI) here, of which those running at this Class 5 level are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 19.9pts (+82.9% ROI).

Richard Hughes takes the ride today and this is a positive sign for me, as he rarely rides the Charlton horses. In fact since 2010, he has only ridden in 15 handicaps for Mr Charlton, but has won 5 times (33.3% SR) for 25pts profit at an ROI of 166.7%! There’s obviously a big winner in there skewing the data, so with a simple odds cap of 5/1, we have 4 winners from 9 (44.4% SR) and 3.34pts (+37.1% ROI) profit : still very useful.

Hughesie also rides the Bath track well, having won 22 of 81 handicap races (27.2% SR) here since the start of the 2010 season, generating level stakes profits of 39.3pts at an ROI of 48.6% along the way. And when sent off in the 2/1 to 9/1 price range, he is 18/61 (29.5% SR) for 49.8pts (+81.6% ROI).

Elite Force was a close runner-up LTO, beaten by just a length and three quarters at Wolverhampton fifteen days ago, making him just qualify for my Top4 LTO microsystem. Basically certain trainers do well when sending a horse back out within 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out and Roger Charlton is one of them.

His top 4 LTO runners are 40/136 (29.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+20.4% ROI) since 2009 and those who failed to win last time, but were beaten by less than 4 lengths went on to win 23 of 61 (37.7% SR) subsequent outings for profits of 57.1pts (+93.7% ROI).

As of 9.15pm on Tuesday evening the 7/2 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook about Elite Force was the best available with 3/1 BOG seeming the generally offered odds. You can see what your preferred outlet has on the book by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 5.45 Bath

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Here is today’s racecard.

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