Stat of the Day, 15th May 2015
Hmmm, Thursday didn’t quite go as well as I hoped it might, did it? Probably serves me right for the change in tack and as my old grandma (god bless) used to tell me…“Stick to what you know, lad!”, I’ll be reverting to a more familiar path today!
That said, Homage wasn’t without friends in the market, being sent off at 7/1 and was favourite for a while, so I suspect we weren’t the only ones with singed digits after he finished 14th of 18 and gave no run at all. We beat SP and 4 of our 17 rivals and that’s as good as it got.
Back to “normal” racing today and an evening trip to the banks of the Clyde in South Lanarkshire for the…
Which is a Class 3 handicap for 11 runners over a trip of 1m4f on soft ground and where I’ve backed Spes Nostra at 7/2 BOG, for although he’s up 6lbs for a demolition job at Ripon last Friday, where he won by 12 lengths whilst easing right down, he’s still technically 3lbs well in based on his future mark.
He’s trained by David Barron, about whom today’s race highlights several grounds for optimism as follows…
His record at Hamilton : Overall this reads 46/246 (18.7% SR) and since 2010 he is 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 36.77pts (+49.6% ROI) here.
His record on soft ground : Also since 2010, he has had 31 winners from 199 (15.6% SR) for profits of 153pts (+77.3% ROI)
Spes Nostra is his only runner on the Hamilton card and since 2008, whenever he’s had just one runner at a track, that horse has managed to win 156 of 908 (17.2% SR) of the time, generating level stakes profits of 153pts at an ROI of 77.3%. (he has 3 at York and one at Newbury too).
When he’s had just one runner at Hamilton, he’s had 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) for 21pts (+116.5% ROI) and of the 908 sole runners above, the record at odds of 5/4 to 11/1 is 129/642 (20.1% SR) for 160pts (+25% ROI) profit.
Phillip Makin gets the leg up today and he has done well on the Barron string in the past, winning 65 times from 322 (20.2% SR) efforts since 2009 and narrowed down to the context of today’s selection, he’s 24/55 (43.6% SR) for 44.3pts (+80.5% ROI) on handicappers priced 15/8 to 4/1.
As for Spes Nostra, a 7/30 career record is decent as it stands, but closer analysis highlights his suitability here…
…he’s finished 221 in 3 starts here at Hamilton,
…he has won on soft ground before,
…he’s 1 from 1 at today’s trip,
…in races of 5 to 11 runners, he is 7/21 (33.3% SR) for 19.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
…at odds of Evens to 8/1, he’s 7/20 (35% SR) for 20.7pts (+103.5% ROI)
…in blinkers, he’s 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 15.2pts (+89.6% ROI) and, finally…
…running within 1 to 8 weeks of his last run, he’s 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 17.7pts (+77.1% ROI).
That’s more than enough to sway me and I’m on Spes Nostra at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 (I’ve got to spend that free Champions League money from midweek!), but the price is very widely available (8 bookies at last count), so take your pick by…
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