Stat of the Day, 16th May 2015
No kind of run really from Spes Nostra at Hamilton on Friday evening. He didn’t attempt to lead as I thought he might, nor was he held up in the rear. He raced mid-pack, didn’t go well, but didn’t run badly. It was all a bit, vanilla, I suppose.
Nobody wanted to back him and out 7/2 ticket almost potentially doubled in value, as he was sent off at 6/1. Unfortunately, on this occasion, the money was right as we finished 7th of 10! Mind you, the money had gone on two of the three horses behind us, so I’m not sure what conclusion to draw.
It just wasn’t a good day for us, that’s for sure and I’m aiming/hoping for better in Saturday’s…
Where you can get 4/1 BOG about Secret Lightning winning back to back Saturday, Thirsk, Class 6, one mile handicaps after scoring by a length and a quarter here a week ago.
She’s trained by Mick Appleby, who is one of those rare number of trainers, who you could have backed blindly in recent years and made a decent profit.
In fact, since the start of 2011, he’s had 267 winners from 2064 runners for a strike rate of 12.9% and if you’d staked just a tenner on each of them, you’d now be £4527 better, a return of 21.9% above your stakes, just for blind backing.
Approaching 40 bets a month from one source might be too much for some of you, so we look to reduce the number of bets without diluting the profit, a fine balancing act. As ever, only logical filters are applied here for SotD, and you could just focus on handicap contests over 7 to 12 furlongs.
If you chose to do that, you’d get rid of 47.5% of the bets, leaving yourself with a record of 156/1084 (14.4% SR) for 254.2pts (+23.5% ROI) and it’s the ROI that is most important here to be honest and I prefer not to back longshots with low strike rates and I don’t like to back shorties that offer no value.
So, what I do with Mick Appleby’s 7 to 12 furlong handicappers is quite simple, I try to keep my bets in the 5/2 to 15/2 range where possible and that would leave you with 89 winners from 424 at a very healthy 21% strike rate with 108.5pts profit weighing in at 25.6% of stakes and for me, a 25%+ ROI from 8 bets a month is a nice little micro system.
As I said at the top, this three year old filly won over this course and distance last Saturday and former C&D winners tend to fare well upon their return to Thirsk.
Since the start of 2011, there have been 198 races here at Thirsk that have collectively contained 400 past C&D winners. 44 of those races (22.22% SR) have been won by a former C&D winner and even backing all 400 of them has been profitable to the tune of 72pts at an ROI of 18%, once again this is blind backing with no filters.
The 169 races of 5 furlongs to 1 mile have produced 43 winners (25.4% SR) from a total of 364 runners for profits of 103.4pts (+28.4% ROI) and with another simple odds filter in place of 5/2 to 8/1 this time, we arrive at 27 winners from 108 races containing 139 past C&D winners.
So, that means a former C&D winner is winning 1 in 4 races and a £10 stake on all 139 qualifiers in those races has yielded £499 profit at an ROI of 35.9% ROI.
Approaching midnight on Friday evening, the best price for Secret Lightning was the 4/1 BOG on offer from Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Hills and Paddy Power! That’s what I’ve taken for this race, but you can, of course, check that’s still available by…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS