Double Dutch, 16th May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th May 2015

After a couple of good days, we were foiled a hat-trick in the last race of the day at Hamilton.

Earlier, Flying Fantasy had won after drifting out to 9/4, with Cape Xenia putting in a really good run at 6/1 and only failing by a nose to land us yet another forecast.

This meant a long wait to see if we could complete the double, but Sleeping Apache was beaten into second place by Economic Crisi who made all to deny us a nice 10.38/1 double.

Friday’s results were as follows:

Flying Fantasy : WON at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Cape Xenia : 3rd at 6/1 (adv 7/2)
Sleeping Apache : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Ambitious Icarus : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)

Results to date:
577 winning selections from 2010 = 28.71%
181 winning bets in 521 days = 34.74%

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Stakes: 1041.50pts
Returns: 1142.47pts

P/L : +100.97pts (+9.69% ROI)


This week’s last picks are as follows…

3.30 Bangor:

Mor Brook was 3rd in a bumper on debut and then third in two hurdles contests earning him a mark of 101 for his handicap debut last time out, but rather than take a handicap hurdle, he was immediately sent chasing and exploited the low mark with a win over course and distance here a fortnight ago. He looked a far better prospect than a 101-rated horse that day and had the race won from a long way out.

He’s up 8lbs today and I’m not convinced that’s enough. The third placed horse was 9.5 lengths back that day and has run since, improving to be a 5 length runner-up and there’s every possibility that Mor Brook would and should come on for having had that first run over fences and in a weak contest, he’s the one I’d look to first at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports.

In opposition, the 10yr old Owen Glendower is interesting, he returned to action at Southwell a month ago, after a break of 16 months off the track and he ran really well that day and was still in contention when falling three out. He showed no ill effects from the fall when winning at Uttoxeter 10 days ago, earning himself a new mark of 114, which looks lenient based on his pre-break form.

Prior to the time off track, he had run, won and also been placed a couple of times of a mark of 133 over fences, including a third placed finish at the Cheltenham Festival. Any sign of a return to past glories would make Owen Glendower massively overpriced at Hills’ 9/2 BOG, but time will, of course, be the judge of that!


7.45 Doncaster:

The in-form James Doyle rides the unbeaten Always Smile here for Saeed bin Suroor (20%+ SR at the track) for her handicap & turf debut and with wins on two different surfaces to date, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that she’ll take to turf readily and go on to secure a hat-trick. The one mile trip should pose no problems after wins at 6f and 8.5f so far.

Always Smile is a half-sister to 1,000 Guineas placer and fifth in the Oaks Ihtimal, suggesting that she could well be a decent miler and in the absence of main threat Darshini, I’d expect her her to take this at 9/4 BOG.

There are a couple of LTO runners in opposition here, but as an alternative to the main selection, I’m going with Marco Botti’s top weighted Puissant, who is better than the bare result of 5th place last time out would suggest. He improved each time as a 2yr old (821), before taking six months off.

On his return a month ago, he went from winning a 1m Class 5 maiden to tackling the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1m1f at Newmarket : a bit of a leap there and although he was fifth on that occasion, had shown plenty of promise for much of the race, before being hampered just over a furlong out. Don’t get me wrong, he was never going to win, but might well have got closer.

Not only should Puissant come on for the run, this is a major drop in class and the experience of the big race could be the key here and if that’s the case, 9/2 BOG could be generous come race-time.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mor Brook / Always Smile @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Mor Brook / Puissant @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Betfair Sports)
Owen Glendower / Always Smile @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Bet365 & Hills)
Owen Glendower / Puissant @ 26.50/1 (4/1 & 9/2 : Betfair Sports)

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