Stat of the Day, 18th May 2015
No run at all to report on from Saturday, as Secret Lightning was pulled from the race, once it transpired just how quick the ground was at Thirsk.
It was a pity, because I really liked his chances and I’ll keep an eye out for him.
And now onto Monday and the…
A Class 6, A/W handicap over a mile and three fulongs, where the 5/2 BOG Surround Sound takes a small step back in trip to try and ease the burden of a 6lb penalty imposed for an emphatic 4.5 lengths win over 1m4f at Wolverhampton a week ago.
Trainer Tim Easterby does very well with his A/W handicappers both long-term and especially more recently, as seen in the following sets of data…
All A/W hcps since 2008 : 49/300 (16.3% SR) for 161.9pts (+54% ROI)
All A/W hcps, 2014/15 : 9/47 (19.1% SR) for 59.5pts (+126.5% ROI)
Here at Southwell since 2008 : 12/99 (12.1% SR) for 63.8pts (+64.5% ROI)
Here at Southwell, 2014/15 : 3/20 (15% SR) for 43.7pts (+218.6% ROI)
Those priced below 6/1 since 2008 : 32/120 (26.7% SR) for 43.1pts (+35.9% ROI)
Those priced below 6/1, 2013/15 : 14/45 (31.1% SR) for 29.4pts (+65.3% ROI)
Despite now bearing a penalty for that last win which makes him top weight here, Surround Sound is still the current 5/2 BOG favourite for this contest, but a precedent comes to my mind about top weights/rated here…
…and it’s this: Top rated (OR) males running at odds of 7/2 or shorter in Class 5 or 6 A/w handicaps of 1m3f or shorter here at Southwell are 65/167 (38.9% SR) for profits of 47.5pts (+28.4% ROI) since 2010.
Now horses priced at that end of the market are often the favourites and if the market likes them, that’s a positive sign. From the 65/167 stat above, the figures for those runners sent off as the SP favourite read 47 winners from 111 (42.3% SR) for 36.8pts (+33.2%ROI)
Now, I’m not a massive fan if backing horses shorter than 3/1, nor am I keen on backing favourites, but rules are there to be bent, if not broken! I think Surround Sound has an excellent chance here and the 5/2 BOG on offer from Betfair SB, SkyBet and Hills might still offer some value to early punters. I’ve gone with Betfair for my bet, but feel free to pick a different firm. But do ensure you get the very best price by…
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