Double Dutch, 18th May 2015
Saturday went the same way as Friday had, with a winner paired with a runner-up for a near miss.
Always Smile was well fancied and was sent off at 13/8, much shorter than our advised 9/4 and although the official margin was just three parts iof a length, the result never really looked in doubt.
That win, unfortunately, counted for nothing as Owen Glenndower narrowly failed to concede 21lbs to a 20/1 typical Brian Ellison improver, leaving us with a 2pt loss on the day.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Owen Glendower : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Mor Brook : PU at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Always Smile : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Puissant : 5th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
578 winning selections from 2014 = 28.70%
181 winning bets in 522 days = 34.67%
P/L : +98.97pts (+9.48% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
New week, 6 new opportunities, starting with…
Horsted Valley improved for his handciap debut last time out, relishing the better ground he faced at Exeter four weeks ago. With both his trainer and jockey currently in excellent form, this looks an ideal opportunity for him to go in again. He’s still unexposed after just 5 starts over hurdles and with race conditions similar to what he faced last time, I’d take him to win this one at 7/4 BOG.
Of his rivals, I find the veteran (12 yrs old) Earcomesthedream most interesting at a value price. He stays 3 miles all day long (4/19 at trip) no matter what the ground (won by 30 lengths on heavy LTO) and although he now only races a handful times a year, this is the time to catch him, as he’s 8/29 in the months of March to May inclusive. He likes it here at Towcester, having won over course and distance and he’s 9/53 running after a 1 to 8 break since his last run. A place is likely to be his best shot, but if the favourite falters, 7/1 BOG is a decent price.
Misu Mac has been an absolute revelation since being sent sprinting this spring. 0/6 on turf in 2012/14 was followed by her finishing 7th of 8 on her A/W debut (1m, here at Southwell). A drop in trip and the booking of today’s jockey Joe Doyle suddenly changed all that. Since then, her four subsequent runs have all been here under Joe and they’ve finished 1211, she’s 211 in handicaps and 121 over course and distance and despite another rise in weights (23 to 66 in four races!), she’s the one to beat here at 7/4 BOG.
Abi Scarlet is the one most likely to upset the form book in my opinion, if things go her way. She won back to back races over course and distance at the turn of the year and although she then struggles in a couple of races of 75 (4th both times), a drop in mark enabled her to return to form last time out, where she ran the odds-on Tarooq to within a neck and was only headed in the shadow of the post. The booking of Luke Morris is a positive one and at 7/2 BOG with Skybet, she’s a decent Plan B.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Horsted Valley / Misu Mac @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : Betfred, Hills & Stan James)
Horsted Valley / Abi Scarlet @ 11.92/1 (7/4 & 10/3 : Betbright)
Earcomesthedream / Misu Mac @ 20/1 (7/1 & 13/8 : Bet365)
Earcomesthedream / Abi Scarlet @ 33.66/1 (7/1 & 10/3 : Bet365)