Stat of the Day, 20th May 2015
When things aren’t going as well as I’d like them to, I’m my own own biggest critic, but despite feeling like I couldn’t currently find my own backside with both hands, I don’t think Tuesday’s pick was a bad one.
I nominated Moon River at 12/1, not to chase a big winner to get the ball rolling again, but because I felt the stats belied her odds and that she was very overpriced.
She turned out to not be good enough to win or even make the frame, failing to get us an E/W return by a couple of lengths, but I was right about the price, as she went off at less than half our advised odds at an SP of 5/1.
Beating the market is the long-term way to profitability and it just wasn’t to be on Tuesday and now we go again in the…
A Class 3 , A/W handicap over 1m3f where you can get 11/2 BOG in several places about Troopingthecolour, who is…
…trained by Steve Gollings, whose record in A/W handicaps since 2011 is excellent with 15 winners from 76 (19.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 73.5pts at an ROI of 96.8%. Here at Kempton, that record is 9/41 (22% SR) for 63.7pts (+155.3% ROI).
His record with runners over trips of 1m3f to 2m is 12/53 (22.6% SR) for 75.7pts (+142.8% ROI) and those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 are 13/57 (22.8% SR) for 39.1pts (+68.6% ROI), with all the quoted stats showing some consistency in the numbers.
Steve Gollings’ Kempton A/W handicappers priced 2/1 to 10/1 are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 19pts (+82.6% ROI) over trips of 1m2f to 2 miles.
William Buick takes the ride here and in Kempton A/W handicaps at Classes 2 to 5 since 2008, he has ridden 50 winners from 252 (19.8% SR) for level stakes profits of 63.6pts at an ROI of 25.3%.
Over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs, he is 18/75 (24% SR) for 72.4pts (+96.5% ROI), of which the runners priced 7/4 to 9/1 are 13/48 (27.1% SR) for 34.2pts (+71.3% ROI) profit.
William Buick has ridden 3 winners from 10 (30% SR) Class 3 runners in Kempton A/W handicaps over 10 to 12 furlongs at odds of 7/4 to 9/1 and has generated 9.9pts (+99% ROI) profits in the process.
Troopingthecolour has a decent record of 5 wins from 21 to his name, but it is on the A/W where he excels, winning 4 of his 7 starts to date and finishing as a runner-up on one other occasion, with all 7 runs coming at trips of 8.5 to 11 furlongs. He’s a former course and distance winner off a mark 2lbs higher than today’s mark of 83 and he’s 2lbs lower than when getting beaten by 6.5 lengths last time out.
That was over course and distance 8 weeks ago, but after a break of over 15 months since his last A/W outing and 418 days since contesting a bumper, he was entitled to need the run. He’s had the run and had a bit of a rest and now we should see him in a more favourable light. He’s by no means a free hit, but at 11/2 BOG, he should represent excellent value to those getting on early.
That said, nobody should really struggle to get a price, as 11/2 BOG is available from Betfair Sportsbook, Hills, BetVictor and Paddy Power, so feel free to take your pick by…
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