Double Dutch, 20th May 2015
Tuesday proved to be a very good day for us with our two longer priced selections both winning to combine for a double at 16.5/1 and with a 4/1 shot beating a warm 11/10 favourite in race 2, there was the added bonus of yet another forecast: this one paying a little over 8/1!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Another Boy : WON at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Poldark : 4th at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Bang On Time : WON at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Sergeant Dick : 2nd at 11/10 (adv 15/8)
The forecast paid £9.10 to a £1 stake.
Results to date:
579 winning selections from 2017 = 28.71%
182 winning bets in 523 days = 34.80%
P/L : +105.03pts (+10.03% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We’d now like more of the same for Wednesday with these…
For a 4yr old, Nyanza is already showing great versatility in bringing her obvious ground speed acquired on the Flat to the hurdling sphere, but has also proved she can clear the obstacles! She was third twice on the Flat (1m4f & 1m6f), whilst she won two from three on the A/W and stayed 1m6f on tapeta, before coming hurdling.
She’s 1214 over hurdles, having won at C4 on her first attempt and has also won a Listed contest, before running fourth in a Grade 2 event last time out. She was far from disgraced that day and finished 120 lengths ahead of Mick Appleby’s Favorite Girl who went on to score next time out. This is a drop in class today and I fancy Nyanza to take this at 9/4 BOG. In fact, I’m surprised she’s that long!
There’s little form to go off from her four rivals, but the one who interests me is Magic Magnolia, who is currently 5/2 BOG. Still without a win after 9 attempts over hurdles, but was a runner-up in a Listed contest when beaten by just half a length at Wetherby. She hasn’t progressed as hoped/expected since then and has now changed hands.
The change of trainer is a positive move for me (no disrespect intended to Mark Gillard), as she’s now under the wing of Dan Skelton. Dan has put Harry on board today for this fillies handicap debut and it wouldn’t be any surprise if either (or both!) of the yard switch and the introductions to handicaps bring about an improvemant from her. Based on past exploits (often dangerous!), Magic Magnolia looks quite leniently treated here, only conceding 1lb to bottom weight, but receiving 25lbs from Nyanza!
In a little over a year, Pair of Jacks has won three times and made the frame twice from just seven runs and has transferred his obvious hurdling ability to the bigger obstacles with apparent ease. He’s now 3U21 over fences, having been hampered into unseating his rider whilst comfortably in third place on his only chasing failure to date.
Pair of Jacks is obviously consistent and the manner in which he ground out a win last time out suggests that today’s extended trip will help him progress for a yard and jockey both in excellent form and all concerned will be expecting a win here at 15/8 BOG, especially when you look at his rivals on show today. There does appear to be a lack of quality to the race, but the one I’ll put up as an alternative is Dursey Sound.
Dursey Sound is in no worse form than the rest, but does have previous course and distance form. His recent results (11, 7, 6, 7, 21,6) over the past 7 months is uninspiring, but he’s running at a higher grade over trips of 3 miles and beyond. We should look further back to last summer/autumn when he was a Class 2 winner and a Listed runner-up at trips more like today’s.
I don’t think he stays the longer races well enough to land a blow, but he’s 4/5 at today’s trip, perfers these smaller fields and is 1/1 here at Southwell, and at around 5/1 BOG offers the best alternative to the main selection.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Nyanza / Pair of Jacks @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Bet365, SkyBet & BetVictor)
Nyanza / Dursey Sound @ 20.13/1 (9/4 & 11/2 : Ladbrokes)
Magic Magnolia / Pair of Jacks @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Magic Magnolia / Dursey Sound @ 28.25/1 (5/2 & 11/2 : Ladbrokes)