Gold subscriber, Brett (aka vindon) shares some nuggets from Steve Taplin’s 2yo’s to follow book…
I’ve been a gold member for nearly a month and I am quite enjoying it for the time being as there seem to be some very grounded gamblers on here rather than the usual lot on other forums. The reason for this post today is about a book I purchase every year ‘Two year olds’ by Steve Taplin. I only got it sent at the start of the month finally but it’s a fantastic purchase for anyone, some of you may already have it. By the way I’m not a relative of Steve Taplin and trying to push his book I’m just letting you know where this information is coming from before I start this post.
The book works with a 5 star format (1 star being of low ability/expectation & 5 star having huge expectations for the year) not all trainers participate in the book which is a little frustrating but a lot of the big trainers do (i.e. Hannon, Channon, Varian)
At the front of the book it has the list of all the 5 star horses (between 10-20) obviously these are the ones to follow. Last year Roger Varian put Cursory Glance as his 5 star 2yo, I think she won on her debut at 2/1 at Kempton one night. Although 2/1 to some people might not seem much value I thought it was a cracking price for a top trainer running his best 2yo on the all-weather in the middle of the week. Cursory Glance went on to win the Albany stakes at the Royal meeting (14/1) and then on to win a Group 1 in Ireland. She was at the head of the Guineas market pre-season until her injury. Obviously not all the horses go on to win Group races but they are good to catch first time up or second as some need a run. It’s also good to keep the previous year’s book for the horses that don’t run as a two year old or don’t run well as a 2yo. An example of this was a horse of David Lanigan’s he put up as a 5 star called ‘Synodic’ which only ran once as a 2yo coming 13th of 14 but came out as a 3yo just over a week ago finishing third at 33/1. I doubt 33/1 will be available next time but if coming on for that run he will surely be a big danger in any race he is entered in next time.
Anyway Today has a few runners that are very interesting.
2.10 Goodwood – Hannon has two in this, one of them not worthy of being in the book or wasn’t bought at the time of making it (George William). The one that is in the book and Richard Hughes’s selection ‘War Whisper’ is rated a 4 star in the book with Hannon saying –
‘A nice big colt, he goes well, we like him and he could be a Royal Ascot 2-y-o’
So for the trainer hoping it could be a Royal Ascot horse you would imagine the horse to go very close in this maiden. Just to bolster this horses chances in this race Tiggy Wiggy, Ivawood and Estikdhaar were all put in as 4 star horses last year before they ran a race. I’m not saying this horse is going to end up like those three as there was a few 4 star horses for Hannon that didn’t do that well. If you can get a decent price around 3/1 or better I think it would be good value in the hope it actually could be a Royal Ascot 2yo.
(Just a bit of info for you Hannon only put up one 5 star horse called ‘Albaha’ last year but that horse has not yet made the racecourse, hopefully that horse is still ok and will make a debut this year)
5.55 Sandown – There are two 4 star horses in this race ‘Kassia’ & ‘Justice Angel’
Trainers thoughts on Kassia – ‘An absolute cracker, She could be anything. She was expensive but I don’t think the money was wasted. She could win over 5f but 6 would be perfect for her’
Trainers thoughts on Justice Angel – ‘A lovely, very quick filly, she’ll be a nice 2-y-o and is one to watch for’
The most likely winner is Kassia as I like to back a Channon horse after a run to start with but shown a good level of ability on debut finishing second to suggest she has the form to win this anyway disregarding the fact she will come on a lot for the run. As we know it’s all about value so it may be a better option to have an each way bet on Justice Angel in this race or/and maybe a RFC if your into that kind of bet.
6.05 Nottingham – Again it’s a race with another two horses rated 4 stars ‘Cool Silk Boy’ and ‘Justice Rock’
Trainer’s Thoughts on Cool Silk Boy – ‘Considering she’s a half sister to a champion 2-y-o filly he was relatively cheap. Maybe people were put off because they thought Richard Hannon would be keen to buy him, which he wasn’t as it turned out. I think that was fortunate for us because this is a strong, good sized horse, pretty precocious but with scope as well. We really like him, he’s done a few sharp bits of work and he’ll be running in May. From what we’ve seen so far we’re more than happy with him and we’d love to think he could be a Norfolk Stakes 2-y-o’
Trainer’s thoughts on Justice Rock – ‘A lovely horse, he’s one to keep an eye on this year because I think he’ll be one of our better colts’
As you can see both trainers are very bullish about their respective horses especially again James Given hoping his could be a Royal Ascot horse. Hopefully we can get decent odds to Dutch the horses in this race. Also something to note would be to watch the 5.55 race and see how Justice Angel runs for D.Elsworth as he trains both that one and Justice Rock with the same owners.
All people bet differently but to small stakes perming the five horses for a treble might be interesting especially for the ones that like the ‘Double Dutch’ on this site.
War Whisper 2.10 Goodwood
Kassia & Justice Angel 5.55 Sandown
Cool Silk Boy & Justice Rock 6.05 Nottingham
Lastly I have noticed a speculative one from last years book rated a 4 star ‘Onorina 5.00 Goodwood’ she ran twice towards the back end of the year and didn’t show much at all but as we know some horses improve as they get older.
Trainers thoughts on Onorina (as an early 2yo) – ‘A gorgeous filly, really well put together and has a great attitude. She moves well and I could see her being out by the end of May in a six furlong maiden. She has a touch of class, she’ll get further in time and I like her a lot. I really liked the first crop of Arcano yearlings I saw at the sales last year’
She steps up in distance a little and has obviously had a break so at long odds is worth a small each way bet, but is one if she doesn’t show much again that she might be exploited in a handicap after this run.
At the time of writing this I have not looked at these horses using the tools available on this website, such as Trainers stats at the course, The form of the trainer and there 2yo debutant stats. So there might be a stronger argument for one or two of these horses.