Stat of the Day, 21st May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2015

Something strange was in the air yesterday, but I haven’t a clue what it was. I was happy to take 11/2 about Troopingthecolur and was shocked to see it at 10/1 mid-afternoon. I still thought it was a sub-5/1 chance, so had another bet on it at 1pt E/W, thinking that a place lets me break even.

Shortly before the race, he was 14/1 and still convinced he had a good shout, I’d another 1pt E/W on him. Anyway the race was terrible, it was run really slowly and was set up for a finisher like the eventual winner who fairly flew home late on.

Our boy was a plugger and he plugged on fairly one-paced, but as nothing really came to challenge, he was able to hold on to 3rd place, beaten by just a couple of lengths. Never a 14/1 shot.

I made a small profit on the race, but for SotD records, it’s a 1pt loss that I aim to recoup in Thursday’s…

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2.40 Goodwood:

A Class 2 handicap over 7f on good ground and a 3/1 BOG bet on Fiftyshadesofgrey, who is…

…trained by George Baker, whose record in Flat handicaps since 2010 is excellent with 72 winners from 533 (13.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 143.5pts at an ROI of 26.9%. Here at Goodwood, that record is 9/50 (18% SR) for 17.8pts (+35.6% ROI).

His record with runners priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 bracket is 62 winners from 273 (22.7% SR) for 103.2pts (+37.8% ROI) profit, with Goodwood providing him with 9 winners from 27 (33.33% SR) for a return of 40.8pts, which equates to £15.11 profit for every £10 wagered.

At trips of today’s 7f or shorter here at Goodwood, his runners are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 36pts (+277.1% ROI) profit and he’s 2 from 2 for 13.8pts this year already!

Fiftyshadesofgrey is admittedly better on the A/W (3/5) than he is on turf, where he has won just once from 13 starts, but has shown recently that he’s getting to grips with running on grass, having finished 2nd and 1st on his last two efforts. He was denied by just a nose at Doncaster, before racing here 19 days ago and winning over today’s course and distance.

He hit trouble in running that day and didn’t get a clear run, but when he eventually got out, he sailed home to win by a length and a quarter going away from the pack. He would probably have won by further had he had a better run and reunited with regular jockey (3 wins together) Pat Cosgrave, there could well be more to come from an inform (121621 last 6 runs) horse who is 2/6 at today’s trip.

Goodwood is also one of those tracks where former C&D winners do well upon their return, especially if they’re in decent form. Since 2008, in handicaps here, former C&D winners priced 7/4 to 13/2 returning to Goodwood off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out, went on to win again on 11 of 37 (29.7% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 34.9pts at an ROI of 94.4%.

Those whose run last time out was over course and distance, however, are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 24.2pts (+105.1% ROI), of which those returning after a gap of 2 to 4 weeks are 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 18.7pts (+124.6% ROI).

I expect Fiftyshadesofgrey to give another good account of himself here and if kept handy, but out of trouble, should be taking this at 3/1 BOG, odds that are quite readily available by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 2.40 Goodwood

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Here is today’s racecard.

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