Double Dutch, 21st May 2015
The only surprising feature about Pair of Jacks’ 7 length victory at Southwell yesterday was his SP. I thought we’d got just about the right price at 15/8, expecting him to shorten a little, but the market compacted and he drifted out to 3/1, but remained as favourite.
3/1 would have made a great second half to a double, seeing as our runners in race 1 were priced at 5/2, but the young fillies let us down, I’m afraid. They were only a length apart, but had to settle for 3rd and 4th places, beaten by 4.5 & 5.5 lengths respectively.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Nyanza : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Magic Magnolia : 4th at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Pair of Jacks : WON at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
Dursey Sound : 4th at 4/1 (adv 11/2)
Results to date:
580 winning selections from 2021 = 28.70%
182 winning bets in 524 days = 34.73%
P/L : +103.03pts (+9.82% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Hoping for a quick return to winning ways via these races…
I see Lead A Merry Dance as the best horse in this race and she was very impressive in winning at Bath just 8 days ago. That was her seasonal reappearance after an absence of 175 days, but she got out quickly and made all to the extent that Richard Hughes was able to ease her down towards the finish, whilst still winning by the thick end of four lengths.
This is an extra half furlong under a 6lb penalty, but her jockey takes 5lbs off and the manner of her run last time out suggest the trip is fine and she has already and made the frame over 6 furlongs. Any repeat of last week’s run should see Lead A Merry Dance take this at 2/1 BOG, whilst the one she’ll need to be most wary of is likely to be Satchville Flyer at 4/1 BOG.
This one comes into this race in excellent form having finished 11221 in his five races this year. His two defeats were by a short head and a length with both winners going on to win again since. He was a winner at Kempton last night, but provided he has emerged unscathed from that run, I’d expect him to go well again today. He didn’t have a hard race last night and was eased once the race was won. Satchville Flyer is 1121 at today’s trip and the only doubt surrounds his ability to transfer his A/W form to the turf.
Cloud Seven is by far the least exposed of the runners here after just four starts and was an impressive winner on his handicap debut at Kempton just over three weeks ago, where he defied a wide draw and then bided his time before hitting the front with a furlong to run. He quickly pulled clear of the pack, before easing down to a two length victory.
The assessor wasn’t fooled by the easing down, though, and has raised him 10lbs for that win, but this half-brother to Group 2 winner has the pedigree and the ability to be far better than a class 4 horse and will no doubt run off much higher marks than today’s 78. That said, Cloud Seven still receives weight from most of his rivals and should be hard to beat at 2/1 BOG.
With no discernible real recent form amongst his rivals, the one I’m going to put up against him is Shahdaroba at 100/30 BOG, who is a former course and distance winner. He may not have won any of his six outings since winning over track and trip 10 months ago, but has clearly been in the grip of the hasndciapper, whilst also racing at a higher level.
He’s back in Class 4 company here and has now dropped to a mark 3lbs lower than that win here last year, making him of obvious interest. He was a respectable 4th last time out in a better race than this on his debut for new trainer David O’Meara at Redcar three weeks ago and not inconceivable that David might have got a bit more out of him. Past history shows that Shahdaroba‘s second run of the season is generally a good one, so time will tell!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Lead A Merry Dance / Cloud Seven @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Lead A Merry Dance / Shahdaroba @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Betfair SB & Ladbrokes)
Satchville Flyer / Cloud Seven @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet & Coral)
Satchville Flyer / Shahdaroba @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 10/3 : Betfair SB & Ladbrokes)