Double Dutch, 22nd May 2015
Satchville Flyer was withdrawn yesterday and didn’t take his second run in as many days, which left us with just three selections and a 20p Rule 4 deduction on our sole runner in the first race.
This reduced our 2/1 BOG price down to 8/5, but this was still marginally above the SP for Lead A Merry Dance, who was a farily comfortable winner as I thought she might be. This gave us two cracks at the double and 2 singles on the runners in race 2.
Race 2 went our way too in great style. Our 10/3 BOG selection Shahdaroba drifted out to 5/1 at the off and battled gamely to hold on for a win by three quarters of a length to secure us a 14.6/1 double and the bonus of another 3pts returned from the singles, improving our bottom line by a fair chunk!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Lead A Merry Dance : WON at 6/4 (adv 8/5 after 20p R4 deduction)
Satchville Flyer : non-runner (adv 4/1)
Shahdaroba : WON at 5/1 (adv 10/3)
Cloud Seven : 5th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
582 winning selections from 2024 = 28.75%
183 winning bets in 525 days = 34.86%
P/L : +113.83pts (+10.85% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ll be looking for more of the same from Friday’s…
Let Right Be Done likes to get on with it and lead from the front and can be a danger to his rivals if allowed to get an easy time of it up front. His trainer Ed McMahon has a decent record here and this horse has put together some good runs of late since stepping up in trip. He made all to win by 2 lengths at Wolverhampton and wasn’t beaten by too far in a couple of contests at Lingfield and here at Bath, when caught late on.
Basically, if he opens up a big enough lead, he’s every chance of hanging on for a win at 7/2 BOG, but if he isn’t allowed to dictate affairs exactly how he likes, he does tend to set things up for a better finisher, such as the 7/4 BOG Keen Move, whose best run by far to date was his most recent when he was second by just half a length 18 days ago.
That was over today’s course and distance, so that experience will help him and it did come off the back of being off the track for almost 20 weeks, so he was entitled to need the run on his first effort beyond 7f on turf.
Ravenhoe should be the one to beat here, based on recent form/performances as he has has already won twice and finished as runner-up once from four starts. He won the Brocklesby on debut and then won again two starts ago. His latest outing was a 1.5 length defeat to the highly rated Areen at York. There was no disgrace in losing that day, as he was conceding 10lbs to the winner and with no horse of that calibre here today and running off level weights as his rivals, then he’d be the one for me at 7/4 BOG.
That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Carrington isn’t too far at the end either. He made a promising debut at Newmarket 19 days ago, where despite finishing 5th of the 11 runners, he was only beaten by a length and a quarter, before going on to make all in a Chelmsford maiden 10 days ago. He still ran green that day and hung quite a bit when clear late on, but still managed to get home by 3 lengths. He’s sure to come on for having more experience and at 9/4 BOG is an excellent alternative.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Keen Move / Ravenhoe @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Keen Move / Carrington @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Let Right Be Done / Ravenhoe @ 10.92/1 (10/3 & 7/4 : Betfair SB)
Let Right Be Done / Carrington @ 12.86/1 (16/5 & 23/10 : Betbright)