Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2015

Pat Cosgrave gave Fiftyshadesofgrey an excellent patient ride at Goodwood on the way to landing a second course and distance win with the horse. It looked like he might struggle to find a gap, but rather than lose ground switching outside, he sat and he waited and sure enough the gaps appeared as horses kicked for home.

When the race was truly on, Pat got the horse out and set his sights on the line and eased his way to the front, running on inside the final furlong to win a shade more cosily than an official distance of half a length might suggest, adding another 3pts to the SotD pot in the process.

A similar level of performance would be nice in Friday’s…

4.15 Haydock:

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Where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about the 3yr old gelding It’s Gonna Be Me in this Class 4, one mile handicap on reportedly good to soft ground, although if this weather in the North West persists, the horses will need flippers come weekend!

This horse is trained by William Haggas, who has for many years been profitable to follow blindly in Flat handicap contests. Putting words into numbers, I can tell you that since the start of the 2008 campaign, Mr Haggas has been represented 1005 times in handicap company and the 210 winners represent 20.9% of the entries. A £10 bet on each of them would have made you £1773 at an ROI of 17.7%.

Here at Haydock, that equtes to 10 winners from 44 (22.7% SR) for 7.8pts (+17.7% ROI) profit: a much smaller sample size, but one that mirrors the yard’s overall performance.

In Class 4 contests, William’s handicappers are 59/236 (25% SR) for 34.6pts (+14.7% ROI) and those running at trips of 7.5 to 8.5 furlongs are 58/243 (31.9% SR) for 47.2pts (+19.4% ROI). The yard’s runners are 22/69 (31.9% SR) for 23.2pts (+33.6% ROI) when ridden by Paul Hanagan and those priced in the 7/4 to 7/12 banding are 151/570 (26.5% SR) for 159.3pts (+27.9% ROI)

You can, of course, do a pick’n’mix job on those various stats to create little microsystems to your heart’s content. One I often look out for which is very close to the above sets of data is as follows… William Haggas’ Class 4 Flat handicappers priced at 11/8 to 7/1 over trips of 7f to 1m1f… Such runners are 25/59 (42.4% SR) for 45.2pts (+76.6% ROI) since the start of the 2010 season. These runners were 16/30 (53.3% SR) for 36.87pts (+122.9% ROI) in the last two seasons.

I mentioned earlier that Paul Hanagan has a good record on the Haggas handicappers, well I took a look at our excellent Trainer Jockey Combo report and that told me that the Triple H alliance (Hanagan / Haggas / Haydock) was worth 6 winners from just 10 runners inthe past five years with that 60% strike rate yielding 10.17pts profits at an ROI of 101.7%.

Those priced below 6/1 were 6/8 (75% SR) for 12.17pts (+152.2% ROI) with a perfect 6 from 6 record at Class 4 or lower.

It’s Gonna Be Me is by Zebedee, whose offspring are 52/436 (11.9% ROI) to date, which has generated 183.2pts profit at an ROI of 42% and they tend to act well on ground the softer side of good. Those rated (OR) 65 to 90 have done well, winning 21 of 133 races (15.8% SR) for profits of 46.3pts at an ROI of 34.8%.

You might have some concerns/doubts about It’s Gonna Be Me being race ready after a break of 222 days since his last outing, but to allay your fears, I can tell you that the yard’s 3 & 4 year old runners returning from absences of 7 to 12 months are 48/150 (32% SR) for 48.8pts (+32.6% ROI) since 2008, with those sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter winning 45 of 95 (47.4% SR) for 43.3pts (+45.6% ROI) profit.

It’s Gonna Be Me really caught the eye last time out and I’m sure he’ll have been well prepared for this and I’m on at 7/2 BOG, price available at both Paddy Power and BetVictor. You see the full market position by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 4.15 Haydock

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Here is today’s racecard.

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