Double Dutch, 23rd May 2015
Things have been improving slowly of late and I though that taking four well fancied selections on Thursday was a safe move that would not only protect recent proift, but would actually top them up by a small amount.
I couldn’t have been more wrong, as I failed to find a single winner, never mind two!
At Bath, we had 3rd and 4th of 5 runners, beaten by just over 1.5 lengths and 5 lengths respectively, whilst it wasn’t much better at Pontefract where we had to settle for 2nd and 4th. Our runner-up was just half a length away from winning, with our final runner another 4 lengths further back on a poor day all round.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Keen Move : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Let Right Be Done : 4th at 4/1 (adv 10/3)
Carrington : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Ravenhoe : 4th at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
582 winning selections from 2028 = 28.70%
183 winning bets in 526 days = 34.79%
P/L : +111.83pts (+10.64% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This week’s final offerings are as follows…
Rousayan is the form horse here and is deservedly the 15/8 BOG favourite based on his two runs this season. He was touched off by a nose at Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance from a 28-week break over a mile four weeks ago, before making all and just holding on to win by head at Beverley a week later. A step back in trip might make give him a little more breathing space pate on and he has only been raised 3lbs for this year’s efforts.
This means he now runs off 80, but was a decent third off 79 at Roscommon last summer over this trip when only beaten by a length and a quarter behind two horses who have both gone on to win again since. A repeat of recent runs should be more than enouh for Rousayan to take a race in which most if not all his rivals have questions to answer.
Seven of his nine rivals have won over today’s trips, but only Dr Red Eye has a course and distance win to his name and he’s the only one with a decent strike rate at this trip. He’s clearly not the 90-rated Class2 winner that he was 2 years ago, but does set the standard at this trip in a fairly ordinary looking field. He has won 5 of 24 races on the Flat over 7f with an excellent return of 4 wins and and three places from just thirteen starts in Class 4 handciaps over this trips.
He’s happy in these mid-sized fields, prefers to go left handed nowadays and tends to save his best form for the May to July period. He’s happy enough running here and although it’s a tentative pick and not one I’d be too keen to back as a single, I do believe that Dr Red Eye is the best of the rest here and is, therefore my alternate at 11/2 BOG and you never know!
Privileged didn’t really show much on her debut at Newbury five weeks ago, when she looked weak when push came to shove, but gave a much improved effort next (and last) time out to finish third at Lingfield three weeks ago. The horses either side of her in 2nd and 4th places have both ran again since and have put up improved performances in making the frame.
With that in mind it’s not unreasonable to expect further progression from Privileged today putting her right in the mix at 9/4 BOG in what looks a pretty weak contest, if I’m honest. She will, however, have, to work for a win, if Black Cherry shows anything like the form she showed last season as a juvenile.
She improved with each of her three runs finishing 532, culminating in a 1.25 length defeat two grades higher than this race and doing enough to earn herself an opening handicap mark of 84, so the assessor thinks she has some ability.
She was disappointing on her reappearance at Newmarket in a Class 4 maiden at Newmarket five weeks ago, but she may well have needed the run after a break of 224 days and another drop down in class into a weak race with Cam Hardies taking 3lbs off might just be what Black Cherry needs for a first win at 15/8 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rousayan / Black Cherry @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Betfair SB)
Rousayan / Privileged @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Betfair SB & Bet365)
Dr Red Eye / Black Cherry @ 17.69/1 (11/2 & 15/8 : Betfair SB)
Dr Red Eye / Privileged @ 18.50/1 (11/2 & 2/1 : Betfair SB, SkyBet & Paddy)