Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2015
Our boy played up before the start yesterday and eventually wasn’t loaded into the stalls and they raced without him, so I’ve nothing to report from Friday’s trip to Haydock.
South Wales now beckons for the week’s finale in the…
And as I’m running late due to unforeseen technical issues here in not-so-sunny East Lancashire, I’m going to keep this as brief as I can!
Saturday’s selection in this Class 4 handicap chase over 3 miles on good ground is Copper Birch, to be ridden by Conor Ring and is trained by Evan Williams, who has done well in this type of contest in the past.
In fact, since 2009, his runners in Class 4 handicap chases here at Ffos Las have won 14 of the 60 races (23.3% SR) in which they have been sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 17/2 (loosely, our average SotD range!). These runners have produced level stakes profits of 9.9pts at an ROI of 16.5% to date.
In handicap contests, the numbers are 12 winners from 46 (26.1% SR) for 14.9pts (+32.4% ROI) on there have been 4 winners from the 13 (30.8% SR) runners who got to compete on good ground. Good ground isn’t often the case here at Ffos Las, but those 4 winners have produced profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 111.5%.
Copper Birch, for his part, has won 2 of 4 starts over today’s trip and gets on well with today’s jockey Conor Ring, who has been on board three times now, making the frame each time. The finishing positions of those races was 133 and they were Copper Birch’s last three efforts with a win over this trip at Taunton in January followed by places at an inadequately short 2m5f here at Ffos Las on soft ground in February and then a tired finish at Exeter over 3m 6.5f and stepped up a class!
He runs off the same mark today as last time out but will benefit from the drop back to his favoured trip on a course where has won over hurdles at the trip. The drop in class will help him, as will Conor’s 5lb claim.
Evan Williams is one of those trainers who seem to know just when to put claimers up for rides and in handicap contests using 5lb claimer jockeys, he has had 27 winners from 181 runners (14.9% SR) and whilst the level stakes profits of 4.12pts are a very modest return on 2.3% above stakes, those are at Betfair SP prices, easily bettered by taking the morning BOG odds, plus it’s profit from blind backing which can ALWAYS be improved upon.
A simple tweak is to just back those in Classes 3 to 5 races, giving you 27 winners from 152 (17.8% SR) for 33.1pts (+21.8% ROI) profit. In chases alone, those figures come to 13 winners from 70 (18.6% SR) for 14pts profit at an ROI of 20% and that’s an adequately big enough ROI for me.
If you wanted more bang for your buck, you could just take the C3 to C5 runners in the 4/1 to 10/1 odds range and leave yourself looking at 17 winners from 82 (20.7% SR) for 72.5pts (+88.5% ROI) with the chasers contributing 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) for 33.9pts at an ROI of 99.7% ROI.
This race should be more to Copper Birch‘s liking and I’m placing a 1pt win bet at 7/1 BOG with Bet365, as he’s 4/1 to 6/1 elsewhere, which are probably a truer reflection of his chances here, but be sure to check who’s offering the best price for you by…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS