SotD : Monday 25/05/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2015

Copper Birch lost 2nd place 3 from home on Saturday and went backwards from there.

He eventually finished 5th, beaten by 13 lengths at 4/1, considerably shorter than our advised odds of 7/1. But moral victories don’t pay the bills, so it would be nice to start the week with the winner of Monday’s…

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4.10 Cartmel:

Where a recent history of 7 wins and 3 places from 11 handicap chases over the past 13 months makes Presenting Junior a fairly obvious member of my daily SotD shortlist, but there are other reasons behind his selection for Bank Holiday Monday.

  • Since 2009, when using a 3lb claimer jockey in an NH handicap on a horse priced in ther 15/8 to 8/1 bracket, trainer Martin Todhunter’s record is 8 wins from 38 (21.1% SR) for profits of 17.1pts at an ROI of 44.9%
  • Since 2010 in Class 3 to 5 handicap chases, 3lb claimer jockeys have won 68 times from 382 occasions (17.8% SR) that they’ve ridden the top weighted horses in the race. This has produced 71pts (+18.6% ROI) profit, whilst in Class 3 races, those numbers are 15/78 (19.2% SR) for 31.3pts (+40.1% ROI).
  • Former C&D winners returning to Cartmel on the back of a win anywhere last time out are 7/20 (35% SR) for 12.85pts (+64.2% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 on that Cartmel reappearance.

And as for the horse himself, his career record of 9 wins from 25 (36% SR) for 44.1pts (+176.4% ROI) is good enough, but in handicap chases, he’s actually 9/17 (52.9% SR) for 52.1pts (+289.4% ROI) profit.

And with today’s race in mind, it’s worth knowing that in handicap chases…

…he has 1 win and 1 place from three starts here at Cartmel and is 1/1 over course and distance
…he has won 3 of 7 outings on good to soft ground (1211 in his last 4 runs on G to S)
…he is 4 from 4 at 2m 4.5f to 2m 5.5f
…he is 1 from 2 with today’s jockey and lastly, but not least (ly?)…
…he is 3 from 5 at Class 3 level and the only time he has stepped up from this grade was when he won a Listed contest at Ayr last time out, so this represents a significant drop back in class.

I was quite surprised to see 7/2 BOG being offered about Presenting Junior here, so I took some of that from SkyBet, whilst Paddy Power offer the same. It’s a case of 3/1 BOG at present with Bet365 and Betfair, so there’s plenty to aim at by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 4.10 Cartmel

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Here is today’s racecard.

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