Double Dutch, 26th May 2015
Rembrandt Van Rijn was withdrawn from our first race, leaving us with just the 9/2 shot Solo Hunter to carry our hopes and he ran a really good race before getting collared fairly late in the piece, going down by just three quarters of a length, taking our double with him.
But the non-appearance of Rembrandt Van Rijn did at least carry a silver lining in the form of 2 x 0.5pt singles in race 2 and whilst the money came for Equity Risk, it wasn’t wise money, as that one finished 7th at 9/4, beaten by more than 6 lengths in the end.
Fortunately for us, the winner was my first pick and C&D specialist Kinglami who came in at 7/2, rmeaning we actually made a small (+11.11% ROI) profit on the day, but as Tesco say : every little helps! 😀
Monday’s results were as follows:
Solo Hunter : 2nd at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Rembrandt Van Rijn : non-runner (adv 5/2)
Kinglami : WON at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Equity Risk : u/p at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
584 winning selections from 2035 = 28.70%
184 winning bets in 527 days = 34.91%
P/L : +110.08pts (+10.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Tuesday’s plan looks like this…
Bertie Blu Boy is a 6-times course winner who tackles 6f here for the first time, but his 5/15 record at 7f should stand him in good stead and it does at least prove he “gets” the surface. He has recently been dropped down to 6f, running his last three races (all at Chelmsford) over this trip, winning twice in the process.
He’s clearly in form and has a good relationship with today’s jockey who is 4/8 on his back. All 10 of Bertie Blu Boy‘s career victories have come on Polytrack, so he’s clearly a bit of a specialist on the surface and I quite fancy him to go in again today at 7/4 BOG with Bet365.
There’s then not much to recommend about any of his rivals in what looks a pretty mediocre contest, so with most of those rivals being out of form, it might well pay to side with Suitsus, who hasn’t run badly recently, because he hasn’t ran for 20 weeks! He did, however, run well on his seasonal reappearance this time last year, when beaten into second place by less than two lengths in a similar handicap to this.
He was beaten by Iseemist that day and she subsequently went on to step up in Class to win a C4 handicap. Suitsus ended his 2014 campaign with three runs over this course and distance last winter, winning once and finishing third (1.25 lengths), so has form over track and trip. The booking of Luke Morris is a positive one for me and at odds of up to 5/1 BOG (Hills), is probably our best safety net here.
A UK form line of PP472 isn’t the most confidence inspiring, but French import Roxyfet has been slowly adapting to life over here and his run last time out was easily the best of the five so far. He was a 4 lengths runner up at Sedgefield and not only has the winner gone on to win again, he had the rest of the pack 10 lengths further back.
Micky Hammond’s runners are going really well at the moment, two more winners yesterday took his fortnightly tally to 8 from 19 (6/10 in the last seven days) and for a horse rated at 120 just 4 months ago, Roxyfet looks potentially well treated here off 100 and can be backed at 5/2 BOG with Betfair SB.
He beat Gin Cobbler that day by 16.5 lengths and that’s likely to prove the main danger again today. Gin Cobbler went on to win next time out and has been kept busy of late, today being his 12th run in 15 weeks! Despite the burden of running so often, he remains in good form, as shown by a narrow defeat (1.25L) at Wetherby five days ago.
And yet for all his efforts of late, he is now only 2lbs higher in the weights than when facing Roxyfet five starts ago, making him too quite leniently treated, but maybe just too high to beat the main selection. Regardless of that, he’s in good nick and Gin Cobbler, therefore, has every chance at 9/4 BOG with Hills.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bertie Blu Boy / Gin Cobbler @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 : Hills)
Bertie Blu Boy / Roxyfet @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Suitsus / Gin Cobbler @ 18.50/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : Hills)
Suitsus / Roxyfet @ 18.50/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor)