Stat of the Day, 27th May 2015
When I started to put Wednesday’s piece together, Tuesday’s runner hadn’t even set off, so I’ll have to add that result in later!
Wednesday takes us far from Hexham to Devon for the…
A Class 4, 6-runner, handicap chase over 2m 5.5f on good ground, where top weight Bang On Time seeks a fourth win in five starts, having lost only by a neck two starts ago.
To date, he has won four chases and three PTP races at trips varying from today’s 2m 5.5f up to 3m2f, so his stamina in unquestionable and he has won on ground ranging from Good to Firm right through to heavy, suggesting he acts on pretty much anything.
He was a 4/1 winner over course and distance here just eight days ago, but didn’t really exert himself that day on his way to a facile 17 length victory. He is, of course, penalised for that win, but the extra 7lb is cancelled out by jockey Paul John’s matching claim, plus the horse is probably still lower than his future mark.
Statistically, he’s well suited to the challenge ahead of him today, he’s 4/9 in handicap chases and he’s finished 121 in three starts here (defeated by a neck two starts ago as above) with his last two runs coming over today’s track and trip where his form reads 21.
These smaller more tactical fields suit him too, as he’s 4 from 8 in races of 8 runners or less, he’s 1 from 1 with today’s jockey and he has won 4 of the 8 occasions when running within three weeks of his last outing.
Both form and conditions look ideal for him here, but as a returning former course and distance winner, it’s useful to note that former C&D winners who returned to Newton Abbot on the back of a win (anywhere!) last time out, won again here in Devon on 21 of 97 (21.7% SR) occasions since 2008, generating level stakes profits of 54.8pts (+56.4% ROI).
Those who were winners here over course and distance last time out doubled up on 15 of 69 efforts (21.7% SR) for 13.1pts (+19.2% ROI), suggesting that whilst they maintain the strike rate, they attract more market attention, which is to be expected. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 odds range were more successful winning 11 of 46 races (23.9% SR) for profits of 12.6pts at an ROI of 27.4%.
At 8.30pm on Tuesday evening, the best price on offer for Bang On Time was the 7/2 BOG available from both Coral and SkyBet. Do, of course, check that’s still the case before you place your bets by…
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