Double Dutch, 27th May 2015
A strangely symmetrical, but profitable day yesterday, as we had the winner (albeit at fairly short prices) and the last home in each of our two chosen races.
At Lingfield, both of our selections attracted money and whilst Bertie Blu Boy (5/4 from 13/8) was comfortable in victory, making all and still able to ease down and win by almost four lengths, Suitsus ( 9/4 from 5/1!) just never got going from a poor start and was beaten by some 27 lengths over 6f!
Then, at Hexham, we had Gin Cobbler as our winner, who defied a market drift (11/4 from 9/4) to also make all on his way to a cosy win, 11 lengths the margin here! And just as at Lingfield, our other runner and 9/4 favourite Roxyfet was slow away, always in the rear and was last home, some 62 lengths adrift.
The fact that two of our runners ran so badly, yet we were able to land an 8.84/1 double is exactly what Double Dutch is all about, having two smaller bites of the same cherry is often better than one!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Bertie Blu Boy : WON at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Suitsus : u/p at 9/4 (adv 5/1)
Gin Cobbler : WON at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Roxyfet : u/p at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
586 winning selections from 2039 = 28.74%
185 winning bets in 528 days = 35.04%
P/L : +113.00pts (+10.69% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here’s how I’m playing Wednesday…
Bapak Asmara is the most exposed here after five starts and needs to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts last month after showing plenty of promise in three maidens last year. I see it as a positive that he’s reunited with Jamie Spencer here and also that Kevin Ryan has chosen to bring him to Thirsk for the first time, where his horses tend to go well.
7/4 BOG might look a little skinny for a 5-race maiden, but Bapak Asmara has shown signs of being able to win a race in the past, if not actually putting it all together at once and if I was just having a single on the race, I’d probably not bother, as he’s no clearcut winner to me, because there’s always a danger that one will improve more than he has and one who might just do that is the 9/2 BOG Thesme.
She’s a once-raced Exceed and Excel filly who was 6th on debut at Newcastle four weeks ago, a place and a head behind Bapak Asmara, but if she progresses from having had a run, could well reverse that form today with the weights unaltered. She was quite green on debut, she pulled hard early on and veered left and expended far too much energy in the opening stages to be able to land a blow late on. She’ll come on for that run and the more experienced Graham Lee should have a better chance of controlling Thesme here.
After winning 6 of 26 races on the flat/AW, you can expect Midnight Sequel to be quick between the hurdles and despite being 0/9 over timber so far, her jumping is sound, as you’d expect from a daughter of Midnight Legend. She has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of her last four hurdles efforts, culminating in a defeat by just three quarters of a length last time out.
That was at Ffos Las just four days ago and she had the rest of the pack strung out behind her, with the third placed runner some 12 lengths behind her. She runs off the same mark today and Midnight Sequel has to be the one to beat at 2/1 BOG with the very lightly raced Ann’s Lottery the one most likely to challenge her.
Ann’s Lottery has only run five times and recently made her handicap debut at the age of 9! And it proved to be her best effort to date, beaten by five lengths into third place over today’s course and distance four weeks ago. C&D experience will help her and the runner-up from that outing has placed again since, whilst the winner stepped up in class to win by 12 lengths at Aintree a fortnight ago. A similar improvement could bring about a first win at 9/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bapak Asmara / Midnight Sequel @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Bapak Asmara / Ann’s Lottery @ 13.44/1 (13/8 & 9/2 : Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport)
Thesme / Midnight Sequel @ 14.81/1 (9/2 & 15/8 : Betfred & Totesport)
Thesme / Ann’s Lottery @ 29.25/1 (9/2 & 9/2 : Betfred & Totesport)