Stat of the Day, 28th May 2015
No joy in Devon on Wednesday evening, as Bang On Time seemed to go wrong a long way from home and was pulled up quite sharply. Hopefully, he’s not too bad after that. Up to that point, he looked to have struggled for a while, his jumping was sketchy and he didn’t travel well at all.
Depsite May seeming to be fizzling out after an earlier good run, I’m more concerned about the horse than the loss of a point, I can’t restore horses’ health personally, but I can recoup losses in the future. Hopefully this will start in Thursday’s…
Which is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m 0.5f on good ground and where I expect Cut The Corner to take the spoils at 5/2 BOG with Bet365.
He won a 21f Tramore handicap last summer and then won on his fourth start for this yard at Warwick 24 days ago. He pretty much threw away the race over 20.5f here last week, but has a great chance off the same mark dropped back to his favoured trip.
Jockey Christopher Ward seems to have developed a good rapport with the horse and hopefully he’ll learn from last week when the horse hung badly left in the closing stages enabling Chalk It Down to catch him late on.
That was in Class 3 (0-140) company over the extended 2m4f here and the drop in both class and trip is sure to help Cut The Corner…
…who is trained by Dr Richard Newland, whose NH handicap record since 2009 is excellent, with 121 winners from just 633 (19.1% SR) runners, achieving level stakes profits of 117.6pts at an ROI of 18.6% from blind backing.
In hcp hurdle contests, his runners are 59/328 (18% SR) for 49pts (+15% ROI) profit and in the last 5 years, those hurdlers sent off at odds of Evens to 7/1 are 44/143 (30.8% SR) for 45pts (+31.5% ROI).
There’s also a precedent in him turning back out so quickly after last Thursday’s defeat…
Since 2008, handicap hurdlers aged 3 to 9 running within 7 days of their last outing provided it wasn’t their only run in the past 3 months (ie not rusty!) have won 679 of 4440 races (15.3% SR) for profits of 1164.6pts or 26.4% of all stakes invested, which again is pretty impressive from blind backing.
Many of you won’t want 11 or 12 bets a week from one microsystem, so you can whittle the numbers down in a multitude of ways, but with today’s contest in mind and in decreasing sample size…
- Classes 3 to 5 : 443/2378 (18.6& SR) for 956.5pts (+40.2% ROI)
- At trips of 2m to 2m2.5f : 328/2023 (16.2% SR) for 933.8pts (+46.5% ROI)
- Down in trip by 1f to 7f : 185/1090 (17% SR) for 889pts (+82.2% ROI)
- 7 yr olds : 158/1034 (15.3% SR) for 1061pts (+103.1% ROI)
You can, of course, mix and match the above to make your own microsystems, which should all make profit at a reasonable strike rate.
At the current odds, we’re clearly not getting rich, but I do expect Cut The Corner to win at 5/2 BOG with Bet 365. You can see if that’s still the case by…
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