Double Dutch, 28th May 2015
To steal an old football cliché, yesterday really was the game of two halves, wasn’t it?
It started really well for us, as Thesme attempted to defy a drift out from 9/2 to 8/1 by making all at Thirsk up the favoured rail, but warm 13/8 favourite (and my first pick) assumed control with a furlong left to run, eventually winning by a length and a quarter.
Thesme stayed on well enough to put four lengths between her and the third placed horse to secure us a 1-2 and a 13.61/1 forecast in the process. The only way it could have gone better was if she could have held on for the win.
It was then over to Newton Abbot, which was a bit of a nightmare for me yesterday. One of my Stat Picks selections ran and lost there, the Stat of the Day horse had to be pulled up sharply with over a circuit to run and I got the Double Dutch race wrong in a manner that left me unsure whether to laugh or to cry!
As those who read my stuff regularly will know, I back the Midnight Legend offspring quite profitably and when I saw the result come up on my phone that Midnight Sapphire had won at 5/1, I was overjoyed at landing the double, until a moment later when I realised I’d put the other “Midnight” up for selection and that Midnight Sequel had fallen whilst in a good position 4 from home.
My misery was compounded by the third “Legend” horse, Kentford Myth, finishing 2nd, whilst our second choice in the race, Ann’s Lottery was the last of six finishers, having initially not wanted to race, blowing her chances before they’d even started!
Like I said, I was unsure whether to laugh or cry!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Bapak Asmara : WON at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Thesme : 2nd at 8/1 (adv 9/2)
The forecast paid out at 13.61/1 here!
Ann’s Lottery : u/p at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Midnight Sequel : fell at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
587 winning selections from 2043 = 28.73%
185 winning bets in 529 days = 34.97%
P/L : +111.00pts (+10.48% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
And on to Thursday with these…
This race has been made easier for me to pick two from, after the withdrawal of last night’s SotD horse, Bang On Time. This leaves it looking (hopefully!) like a two-horse race between Fond Memory and Guiding George.
Guiding George had been in good nick during the winter over both hurdles and fences on left handed tracks, winning a C4 chase and losing a C3 chase by just half a length having been collared very late into a 3m 0.5f contest. Sandwiched between those runs were two efforts over timber, including a 0.75 length defeat at Wetherby (C4) and then he was beaten by just a length and a half in a Cheltenham Class 2 event.
I’m happy to ignore his last poor show going right handed in a C3 chase and there have been many signs of weak finishing of late (hence his narrow defeats). The slight drop back in trip to below 3 miles and the return to Class 4 racing allied to Harry Skelton’s booking make Guiding George a real contender here at a nice price of 4/1 BOG.
He will, however have to see off Fond Memory, for whom I have a slight preference. A winner over course and distance last time out and only out of the first three home on one of his six efforts over fences, winning twice in the process. He clearly has ability and consistency and whilst he’d probably prefer the ground to be a little softer, he should have enough in his locker to defy a 7lb rise in the weights to take this at 7/2 BOG (Paddy Power)
Hubertas followed a well worn path two starts ago by being stepped up in trip a couple of furlongs for a handicap debut on grass after three mediocre efforts in maidens on All-Weather surfaces at inadequate trips. This enabled him to win by a head at Nottingham off a mark of 58. He was instantly raised to 67, but that wasn’t enough to stop him, as he stepped up another 2f to win at Leicester 10 days ago over this trip.
He is, of course, up another 6lbs for that effort, but with there being no signs of his progression slowing down and his lack of exposure at this trip and in general (just 5 starts so far), I fancy Hubertas to come on yet again and land this one at 9/4 BOG (Paddy Power & Hills).
Also up 6lbs for a recent win and clearly in good nick is Retro Valley, who won back to back 10f handicaps earlier in the month in a manner that suggested this step up in trip would bring about further improvement. The bubble was slightly deflated last time out, when he was only fifth of fifteen at Leicester two days ago.
He was only beaten by less than three lengths, though, having hit trouble in running, being denied a clear run on a couple of occasions and it doesn’t take much to lose a length or two when having to be snatched up. Just eight go to post here on a wider track, which should reduce the risk of getting boxed in and I’d expect a return to form from Retro Valley who can be backed as long as 9/2 BOG in most places!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Fond Memory / Hubertas @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Paddy Power)
Fond Memory / Retro Valley @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2 : Paddy Power)
Guiding George / Hubertas @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : Hills)
Guiding George / Retro Valley @ 26.50/1 (4/1 & 9/2 : Bet365 & Hills)