Double Dutch, 29th May 2015
I used an old football cliché, today I could use the catchphrase of Paul Calf, alter-ego of Steve Coogan, after yesterday’s poor show.
In race 1, I had Fond Memory to beat Guiding George, but they came home the otrher way round in 2nd and 3rd places, but well beaten by 6 and 26 lengths respectively.
Our runners in the second race were much closer to each other, though. In fact they couldn’t be separated and a dead heat was called. Unfortunately they dead heated for third, a length and three quarters off the pace.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Guiding George : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Fond Memory : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Hubertas : DH 3rd at 11/4 (adv 9/2)
Retro Valley : DH 3rd at 6/1 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
587 winning selections from 2047 = 28.68%
185 winning bets in 530 days = 34.91%
P/L : +109.00pts (+10.27% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I need better from these on Friday…
Deauville Dancer sets the standard here, having finished last season off with a hat-trick of handicap successes at 1m6f and 2m on a variety of going conditions. This tells us that he stays and won’t mind if the rains appear. He’s entitled to have needed a run last time out after an absence of over 8 months, but was still able to run within a head of the winner at Bath 25 days and with more progression likely, he looks the one at 5/2 BOG.
The form horse of his rivals is Longshadow, who reappeared at Doncaster five weeks ago fresh from a 7 months break and ran out as a comfortable 4.5 length winner in conditions similar to today, which do seem to suit him well, as he’s 5/11 on good to firm ground, 4/8 at the trip, 2/2 with today’s jockey and as a former course and distance winner on his only previous visit to this track, might prove to be a bit long at 6/1 BOG with Hills.
Pick A Little seems the obvious starting point here, as he seeks a hat-trick of wins inside 38 days, having won here at Brighton over 7f in late-April, before stepping up to this 1m trip for a course and distance win 24 days ago. He’s up 6lbs for that latest win, which seems fair and to be honest, the way he has been running on in the closing stages suggests there’s more to come.
The 6lb rise is negated by the booking of Edward Greatrex, who actually takes 7lbs off, which should keep Pick A Little very competitive and with Edward riding well at the moment, things point to a 2/1 BOG win here today.
You could makes cases for and against most of his rivals here today, but I’m going with Gannicus as the Plan B. Jockey Martin Dwyer rides the quirky course well, including getting this horse over line as a winner in a similar course and distance contest last time out. There’s a 2lb rise to contend with for that effort, but the way he rallied after being headed late on showed he might well have something in reserve and was just doing enough on the day.
He’s well suited by the small number of runners here, with both career wins coming from the two races of 7 or fewer runners. Both his wins came on left handed tracks and closer inspection shows that he’s 2/3 in Class 5 contests on turf over today’s trip, making Gannicus of at least moderate interest at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Deauville Dancer / Pick A Little @ 10.40/1 (14/5 & 2/1 : Betbright)
Deauville Dancer / Gannicus @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : Bet365)
Longshadow / Pick A Little @ 19.31/1 (11/2 & 85/40 : Betbright)
Longshadow / Gannicus @ 34.75/1 (11/2 & 9/2 : Bet365)