Stat of the Day, 29th May 2015
Another evening of frustration in Yorkshire, but I’m not the first from the “right” side of the Pennines to feel that way and I certainly won’t be the last!
Cut The Corner ran well enough without being spectacular, got a bit squeezed and bumped a little in the closing stages which seemed to slow him down, but I’m not convinced he had enough in the tank to win even with a clear run.
We had to settle for 5th place, beaten by nearly 4.5 lengths despite being heavily backed in from our 5/2 to an SP of 5/4. I find myself repeating the mantra that constantly beating SP will provide long-term profit and it really will, but I could just do with some short-term relief (oo-er, missus! 😀 )
Hopefully that will come in Friday’s…
And what looks a truly awful standard of race, but I believe we’ve got the best of a (very) bad bunch in the shape of the 11/4 BOG Tilstarr. She might well be 0/15 on turf and just 2/31 in her entire career, but unbelievably her 6.45% career strike rate is the best of the 7 runners here, who collectively have only won 8 of 180 races!
She was a runner-up just nine days ago in a better standard (and class) of contest than this and was only beaten by the in-form (111221) I’m Harry, having possibly expended too much energy in the early stages chasing a runaway leader, who faded to a 14.5 lengths defeat.
Better handling by a jockey with a decent record on this course might help her cause today, as John Egan‘s career record here at Brighton reads as 25 winners from just 142 (17.6% SR) rides. He had no rides here between June 2009 and early October 2014, but snce coming back to Brighton almost 8 months ago, he has won 7 of his 12 races here, the 58.3% strike rate yielding 72.6pts profit at an ROI of 605%!
I know these are small sample sizes, but Brighton has its quirks and it would seem that John understands them, which has to be a positive sign. He’s 5/10 for 65.6pts in handciaps, he’s 4/7 for 52.2pts at Class 6 level and below 4/1 he has ridden 4 winners from 6 for 10.9pts etc etc!
Trainer Roger Teal has also done well at this lower level here at Brighton, despite not sending too many runners here. Since the start of the 2012 season, he’s had 4 winners from 11 runners (36.4% SR) for 10.2pts (+92.7% ROI) profits in Class 5/6 handicaps at odds of 15/8 to 6/1.
As I mentioned a little while ago Tilstarr ran at a higher grade when finishing second last time out and since 2010, Roger Teal‘s handicap class droppers priced at 14/1 and shorter (he’s had quite a few longshots!) are 13/80 (16.25% SR) for profits of 30.4pts at an ROI of 38%.
Those running within 3 to 21 days (ie fresh but not too soon) of their last run are 7/21 (33.33% SR) for 45.6pts (+217.3% ROI), whilst those finishing 2nd or 3rd last time out are 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 15.2pts (+101.3% ROI) and those running here at Brighton are 2 from 8 (25% SR) for 10.7pts at an ROI of 133.9% ROI.
Tilstarr is nowhere near being the best horse we’ve selected for SotD, she’s not even the best this week, but I think she’s the best in this race and has the stats to back up the selection.
So, the call for Friday is a 1pt win bet on Tilstarr at 11/4 BOG, I’m on with Bet365, but the same price is offer from both Hills and BetVictor, as you’ll see after…
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