Double Dutch, 30th May 2015
Awful stuff yesterday, I’m afraid, guys (and gals, of course!). Gannicus ran very well in a narrow defeat at 9/2, when beaten by the popular Hanno by half a length at Brighton with Pick A Little, finishing 5th at 3/1, beaten by 5 lengths.
But the double was already down before they ran, after a really poor show at Newcastle, where 4th and 7th of 11 runners was the best I could muster. It wasn’t even close either, if I’m honest, with my picks beaten by 3.5 lengths and 9 lengths respectively. The less said the better!
Friday’s results were as follows:
Longshadow : u/p at 11/2 (adv 6/1)
Deauville Dancer : u/p at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Gannicus : 2nd at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Pick A Little : u/p at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
587 winning selections from 2051 = 28.62%
185 winning bets in 531 days = 34.84%
P/L : +107.00pts (+10.06% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday is the last set of runners for the month…
Music Master is the class horse in this field and the withdrawal of Pretend strengthen his claims here. A Group 3 winner last season and placed in a group 1 event here at Haydock, this is a drop in class for what he’s used to and he certainly likes it here. He’s 3/6 on good ground and although all his best form is at 6f and he now tries 5f for the first time, he has shown on secveral occasions that he has sufficient early pace to be in the mix at the minimum trip.
He was only beaten by a length and three quarters on his seasonal reappearance from as lengthy break last month and that was at Group 3 level and I’d have thought a similar level of performance here would be enough to secure victory for Music Master at 5/2 BOG mainly at the expense of Out Do, who comes here in great form winning three of his last four starts, albeit at Class 2 level, but winning breeds confidence.
His last outing was also his first crack at 5f, where he beat some decent rivals to hold on for a win by a neck, despite hanging left late on. He wears a visor today in a bid to help keep him straight and if reproducing recent form, Out Do is interesting at 4/1 BOG.
Vincentti might be winless in his last 25 races since September 2012, but has shown signs of decent form this year now dropped down to a workable mark. He has finished second in each of his last two runs and now finally steps up to 7f, which should suit him more judged on the way he has been finishing lately and also by the fact that he’s a half brother to Aaim To Prosper, which says there’s more to come from a stamina perspective.
In what looks a weak race, this could go to Vincentti lurking at the bottom of the weights at 11/4 BOG, ahead of Strategic Force, another horse trying 7f for the first time today. He has ran well in the past over 6f in races where those staying on have fared best, suggesting that today’s extra furlong could be even more to his liking, as he’s not one of those likely to burst out to try and take the race on.
He also runs well fresh, as he’ll need to after a break of 101 days, but in the past he has finished 2nd by a length after 134 days and he also won by almost three lengths just over a year ago after 182 days off. If handling the step up in trip Strategic Force has every chance here at 100/30 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Music Master / Vincentti @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Music Master / Strategic Force @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Betfred & Totesport)
Out Do / Vincentti @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Out Do / Strategic Force @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 10/3 : Ladbrokes)