Stat of the Day, 30th May 2015
I suggested that yesterday’s race at Brighton might not be the strongest and when a horse who is 0/15 on turf wins relatively comfortably, that says it all.
Mind you, Tilstarr had a job to do and we’d highlighted why we thought she’d run well and there’s no denying she ran well. No luck involved, she was the best on the day, winning by the best part of two lengths at the same 11/4 price we’d advised.
It was a most welcome return to the winning enclosure for both Tilstarr and SotD alike and I now turn to the last pick of the week/month (even I take Sundays off!), which looks a decent price in the…
Where, despite there being a fairly large field, 7/1 BOG about Claret Cloak might prove generous just after 8’0’clock.
He’s trained by Emma Lavelle…
…who, since 2008 is 9/60 (15% SR) for 18.5pts (+30.9% ROI) here at Stratford and in handicaps, she’s 7/42 (16.7% SR) for 22.7pts (+54% ROI), whilst in the last five years her handicap hurdlers are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 12.2pts (+152.4% ROI) on this track, of which the 5/2 to 10/1 runners are 3/6 (50% SR) for 14.2pts (+236.6% ROI).
Today’s jockey is Gavin Sheehan…
…who is no mug and is riding well enough (4/22 in the last fortnight) to instil confidence. He’s 11/70 (15.7% SR) on Emma’s horses and is most profitable on her hurdlers priced below 10/1, where he has won 7 of 28 (25% SR) races for profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 51.7%.
He also rides well here…
…to the tune of 5 winners from 19 (26.3% SR) for 3.2pts (+16.8% ROI) on horses priced below 10/1 in the last 12 months.
So what of Claret Cloak?
Well, he hasn’t competed over hurdles for 777 days, but that last run was a course and distance win here at Stratford, before embarking on a chasing career. He comes here in good nick, having finished second in a Listed chase just three starts ago off a mark of 147 and won a Class 2 Chase last time out (26 days ago) off 151.
He now reverts to hurdles off what looks a lenient 146 to me, especially considering he has 3 wins and a placed finish from his seven runs over timber in the past. He finished third in a Listed hurdle and was considered good enough to contest two grade 3 hurdles. If adjusting immediately, he could well be thrown in, despite bearing top weight.
Conditons seem to be in his general favour, he’s 1/1 here at Stratford (that last hurdles outing over C&D), he’s 4 from 9 on good ground and 4 from 6 at today’s trip. He has won twice and finished runner-up once in three runs carrying 11-12 and he has won 4 of 9 when racing within 21 to 40 days of his last outing (3/4 within 25 to 30 days!)
At first glance, it could look like I’m tilting at windmills trying to end the month with a bang (no booms at geegeez!), but I assure you that’s not the case and it never will be. We don’t advocate chasing losses at any time.
I genuinely like his chances and I’d expect him to shorten to a more familiar price as the day goes on, so I suggest getting on Claret Cloak at 7/1 BOG with Bet365 (or BetVictor if you prefer) whilst you can and when that goes 6/1 BOG is still decent, so be sure to check all the bookies by…
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