SotD : Monday 01/06/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2015

We’ve averaged two winners every seven days in the 42 months or so since we (Matt and I, there’s only two of us here!) started SotD and that basically means alongside making good profits, we do pick quite a few losers.

The good thing about the losers is that they generally provide us with a decent run for our money at a value price. There are, however, the odd one that runs like a pig and makes me look a bit silly afterwards. That, unfortunately, was the case on Saturday with Claret Cloak.

He was well fancied enough to be the 6/1 second favourite of 15 runners, but once headed 4 out, folded very tamely and regressed through the field, eventually finishing a well-beaten 12th of 15.

These things happen, though and now we move on to the first pick of a new week/month, which runs in the…

3.20 Leicester:

And goes by the name of Laurence, a lightly raced (4 starts so far) 3 yr old colt from the Luca Cumani yard.

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Luca’s record here at Leicester is excellent…

…with 19 winners from 77 runners (24.7% SR) since 2008, producing 38.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 49.6% with those priced at 9/1 or shorter winning 18 of 55 (32.7% SR) for 29.8pts (+54.1% ROI).

In handicap contests, Luca’s had 11 winners from 33 here at Leicester with that 33.33% strike rate generating 35.1pts (+106.3% ROI) profit and at odds of 9/4 to 11/2, his ‘cappers are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 12.9pts (+76% ROI) here.

Laurence makes his handicap debut today…

…and Luca Cumani’s record with 3 yr olds on handicap debut is 43/169 (25.4% SR) for 69.5pts (+41.1% ROI) since 2008, with a 2/6 for 4.27pts record here at Leicester. His handicap debutants priced at 10/1 and shorter are 42/149 (28.2% SR) for 68.5pts at an ROI of 46%.

He’s also stepping up in trip…

…to 1m 2f from his win over a mile at HQ just over a fortnight ago, but the Cumani 3 yr old handicap debutants stepping up in trip by 1.5 to 2 furlongs have won 15 of 36 (41.7% SR) races for level stakes profits of 39.3pts (+109.2% ROI) and the way he swooped late staying to claim the win last time out suggests he wants further than a mile anyway, which should be a surprise as…

…he’s a son of Dubawi…

…one of my current favourite sires and definitely one to follow, if you’ve not taken my previous hints already! Backing Dubawi’s offspring is both simple and profitable to do.

Basically, if you’d backed all of them since the start of the 2010 campaign at odds of 20/1 or less, you’d have had 248 winners already from just 1361 bets, a strike rate of 18.2%. A £10 bet on each of them would have netted you a cool £1794 at an ROI of 13.2% from blind backing.

There are lots of ways of breaking down the data, but in flat handicaps over 7 to 12 furlongs at odds of 7/4 to 12/1, there were 86 winners from 457 (18.8% SR) for 174.6pts (+38.2% ROI) profit. Of which, 3yr olds are 61/281 (21.7% SR) for 190.7pts at an ROI of 67.9%.

This could turn out to be a decent contest, but the signs point to a big run from Laurence and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off shorter than the 7/2 BOG I’ve just taken from Hills. The same price is also available from both Coral & Ladbrokes, but the latter won’t go BOG until 9.00am on Monday.

As always, do check these bookies are still the best priced, before placing your bet and you can do this by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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