Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2015
I thought that Laurence handled the step up in trip well on Monday and if anything, will possibly want to go further sooner rather than later, judging by the way he finished.
He seemed to take a while to get going and by the time he did, the eventual winner Berland had already got first run and our boy couldn’t quite haul him back whilst conceding 8lbs and had to settle for the runner-up berth.
I felt we had a decent run for our money and our advised 7/2 odds fairly smashed the 2/1 SP up, which is always a confidence booster if nothing else.
It seems to have become an SotD tradition now for the first pick of the month to get beaten, so now that’s out of the way, let’s win the…
A Class 4, handicap hurdle on good ground over 2m 4.5f, where I’ve just taken 11/4 BOG about Gavin Sheehan’s mount Knight Bachelor, a 5yr old gelding trained by Warren Greatrex.
Warren’s record here at Southwell…
…isn’t bad at all, especially if there’s a bit (but not too much!) of money around for his runners. Don’t get me wrong, he doesn’t send that many here at all, but those he has sent here at odds of 2/1 to 13/2 are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 156.3pts (+90.1% ROI). Gavin Sheehan has, somewhat surprisingly, only ridden six of them, but has still bagged two winners and 6.65 pts (+110.8% ROI) profit.
The Sheehan / Greatrex partnership is a good one…
…with 66 winners from just 302 runners at a strike rate of 21.9% generating level stakes profits of 51.6pts at an ROI of 17.1% and in handicap hurdles contests on horses priced no longer than 12/1, the team are 17/67 (25.4% SR) for 24.5pts.
Knight Bachelor was a runner-up LTO…
…just 15 days ago, when beaten by only two lengths despite making a mess of the last hurdle when looking like the winner on ground considered a little too soft for him. The fact that we’re now on good ground (where he has one win and one second place from two attempts) is a bonus, as is the fact he’s given a chance to atone for his error so quickly.
Warren Greatrex often turns horses back out quicly if they’re running well and his horses who finished in the top four places last time out and then run again 4 to 15 days later have won 11 of 40 (27.5% SR) of those follow-up efforts for profits of 20.6pts (+51.5% ROI)
…he’s a son of Midnight Legend…
…who, as you all probably know by now (and are sick of me telling you! :D) is one of my favourite NH sires. I won’t bore you with all those possible combinations of how to show how successdful his offspring are, I’ll keep it relatively brief as follows :
In hcp hurdles races, the Legend’s progeny are 85/639 (13.3% SR) for 241.9pts (+37.9% ROI) and with today’s race in mind, those competing at trips of 2m to 2m6.5f and priced 6/4 to 17/2 are 44/223 (19.7% SR) for 66.8pts (+30% ROI).
So, Tuesday’s call is a 1pt win bet on Knight Bachelor at 11/4 BOG, I’ve used Betfred for my bet, but at least five other firms are matching that, so you’re able to take your pick by…
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