Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2015
Knight Bachelor was a real disappointment at Southwell on Tuesday evening after being well supported in the market, shortening from our advised 11/4 to an SP of 15/8. He seemed to be travelling well enough tracking the leaders, but on the approach to towards the home trun had to be ridden quite forcibly for an effort.
The effort wasn’t forthcoming and he pretty much went out like a light and jockey Gavin Sheehan had no option, but to throw the towel in. Gavin was probably as surprised as we were, but that counts for nothing now, so let’s move on to Wednesday’s…
A Class 5 maiden over 1m2f where I’ve backed Ralph Beckett’s 3 yr old colt Argus, who showed plenty of promise when beaten by less than 4 lengths into 5th place on debut at Newmarket 7 weeks ago.
That race’s form seems to be working out well enough so far with three of the top six that day reappearing since: the runner-up is 1 from 1 since then, as is the 6th placed horse, whilst the third place from that day has been a runner-up in each of two subsequent starts.
Ralph’s a rare visitor to Ripon, but four of his nineteen (21.1% SR) representatives here since 2010 have been winners, with all four winners coming from the 9 runners sent off below 3/1 (which is where I think we’ll end up!), but for a larger sample size, you could just…
…back all Ralph’s runners! Because, if you’d done this since the start of 2009, you’d have backed 428 winners from 2574 bets (16.6% SR) and made yourself just over £4830 profits at an ROI of 18.8% based on a level stake of £10.
Obviously they’re great numbers from blind backing, but not everyone wants to back around 400 horses per year from one trainers, so it’s interesting to note (with today’s race in mind) that Mr Beckett’s record in maidens in that same time frame shows 189 winners from 982 (19.25% SR) for profits of 351.1pts at an ROI of 35.8%.
His Class 4/5 maidens are 142/690 (20.6% SR) for 216.8pts (+31.4% ROI) with those in the 5/4 to 6/1 price range winning 87 of 297 (29.3% SR) for 64.3pts (+21.7% ROI) and making a profit every year!
Argus is by Rip Van Winkle, whose progeny have taken very well to racing, winning 29 of 206 (14.1% SR) races to date for level stakes profits of 57.4pts (+27.9% ROI) with those running in maidens winning 16 of 135 (11.9% SR) for 57.6pts (+42.6% ROI) and the Class 4/5 runners are 16/120 (13.33% SR) for 68.6pts (+57.2% ROI).
Rip Van Winkle’s offspring runnnig in Class 4/5 maidens are 11/96 (11.5% SR) for 68.3pts (+71.1% ROI) with those running for the second time (like Argus here) winning 9 of 35 (25.7% SR) for 35.5pts (+101.4% ROI), of which those priced at 21 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 16.7pts (+185.1% ROI)
I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Argus at 100/30 BOG with Bet365, but do check that’s still the best on offer by…
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