Stat of the Day, 4th June 2015
It took three days, but we’re off the mark for June now, thanks to Argus’s near two-length victory at Ripon on Wednesday evening. Andrea Atzeni kept him in a good position throughout and as it looked like it might get a bit rough, held his line well.
He patiently bided his time before hitting the front and was pretty comfortable in the end, but whether I’d have backed him at his SP of evens is questionable! Thankfully, we get SotD on early before the markets wake up and in this instance, we absolutely smashed SP by taking 100/30!
All of which just about puts us ahead for the month and I’ll look to add more to the bottom line via Thursday’s…
A Class 3 handicap chase over three miles on good ground, where David Dennis’ 6 yr old gelding Steel Summit can be backed at 4/1 BOG in several places.
David Dennis hasn’t been training long, but is already making a name for himself as a trainer to watch out for in NH handicaps with 30 winners from just 183 runners since the start of 2014, with the resultant 16.4% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 51.2pts at an ROI of some 28%, with those priced in the 5/4 to 6/1 range winning 24 of 77 (31.2% SR) for 44.4pts (+57.6% ROI).
In that same time, his handicap chasers have won 10 of their 54 races (18.5% SR) for a modest profit of 3.8pts (or 7.1% of stakes) with those in the same 5/4 to 6/1 odds band winning 9 of 28 (32.1% SR) for profits of 17.4pts (+62.2% ROI), of which those running over trips of 2m 4.5f to 3m 1.5f are 6/10 (60% SR) for 18.2pts (+182% ROI).
Steel Summit was a winner by 8 lengths at Wincanton last time out and that was 4 weeks ago over 3m 1.5f, so although he’s up in weight for that run, a slight drop back in trip should help on the stamina side, as should the fact that…
…since 2008, male chasers aged 6 to 9 running at Class 3/4 on the back of a handicap chase victory by 2 to 10 lengths last time out 11 to 150 days ago (ie had a rest, but not rusty!) are 264/1153 (22.9% SR) for 275.1pts (+23.9% ROI) profit.
It’s an excellent profitable microsystem that I follow, but I appreciate that some of you might not want over 150 bets per year from just one micro, so in descending sample size, you could just take…
…those running after a break of 11 to 30 days : 201/789 (25.5% SR) for 256.5pts (+32.5% ROI)
…those competing at Class 3 level : 126/591 (21.3% SR) for 171pts (+28.9% ROI)
…those who won by 4 to 10 lengths LTO : 119/480 (24.8% SR) for 154.1pts (+32.1% ROI)
…those aged 6 yrs old : 61/226 (27% SR) for 64.4pts (+28.5% ROI)
And if you just wanted around 30 bets a year, you could do a lot worse than to combine some of the above, as those running at Class 3 level, 11 to 30 days after a win by 4 to 10 lengths are 63/229 (27.5% SR) for 153.8pts (+67.2% ROI), a micro-microsystem (?) that has been profitable every year since 2008, except for 2009, when it lost a mere 8.2pts.
As for Steel Summit in relation to this race, he’s 1 from 1 here at Ffos Las, 3/9 on good ground, 3/4 at 3 miles and beyond, 2/6 with today’s jockey, 6/15 in fields of 3 to 8 ruinners and 6/20 running within 30 days of his last outing, so plenty to consider!
Steel Summit is currently widely available at 4/1 BOG. I’m reinvesting some of Wednesday’s winnings back with Bet 365, but you can take your pick of the bookies by…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS