Double Dutch, 4th June 2015
Winners are 6/5 (adv 13/8) and 13/8 (adv 11/4) aren’t going to help me retire anytime soon, but putting them together for an 8.84/1 double allied to Homage’s runner-up finish landing a 7/1 exacta will at least keep the wolves rom the door for another day or two!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Minella Present: WON at 6/5 (adv 13/8)
Gun Shy : 5th at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Big Baz: WON at 13/8 (adv 11/4)
Homage : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
The exacta paid £8.00 from a £1 stake here.
Results to date:
590 winning selections from 2066 = 28.56%
187 winning bets in 535 days = 34.95%
P/L : +107.42pts (+10.04% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ll look for more of the same from these A/W runners on Thursday…
Collective form in this race is poor, but the combined stats of 0 wins from 44 runs from these 8 horses has to be improved this afternoon!
The one most likely (IMO) to break his duck here is the 9/4 BOG Light Breaks, trained by Sir Mark Prescott, who has a good record here at this track. The horse was very well suported last time out coming off the back of 193-day absence for just his fourth run, but never really figured over what looked an inadequate 1m2f.
He’s by Dylan Thomas, so should appreciate today’s step up in trip to 1m4f and the easing of his mark by 2lbs should also helkp him attempt to get off the mark at the fifth attempt. Sir Mark does well stepping uinexposed horses up in trip and I’d expect Light Breaks to put in his best run to date here.
Another lightly-raced (just 4 starts too) runner is Hughie Morrison’s only entrant of the day, the filly Rock Heroine. She has improved in each of her runs to date, culminating in a narrow (neck) defeat at Southwell last time out. That was six weeks ago and the winner from that day has won both his subsequent outings, despite being raised 12lbs for his efforts.
This is a marked step up in trip today, but there is some decent form on her dam’s side to suggest that she’ll get 1m4f if the race is run to suit her, which based on the quality (or lack of!) amongst the alternatives here, Rock Heroine has still got to be the next best bet at 3/1 BOG.
It should pay to side with the two in-form horses who both won comfortably last time out.
High Secret has won four times and been placed twice since moving into handicap company and all at trips of further than 1m4f. He won at Chelmsford 16 days ago by over two lengths, despite being eased right down and the manner in which he put that race to bed suggests there’s still more to come stepping up further in trip and he’s my pick here at around 13/8 BOG.
Shades of Silver is 1 from 1 here at Kempton, albeit at 1m4f, but did win on his first crack at 2m last time out, 16 days ago at Nottingham. He was clear of the pack with over a furlong to run that and despite not being driven/ridden out to a finish, still finished a good 8 lengths ahead of the runner-up. This is, of course, a tougher challenge and he’s up 10lbs for that win, but at around 3/1 BOG, he’d be the one most likely to challenge.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Light Breaks / High Secret @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Light Breaks / Shades of Silver @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Hills)
Rock Heroine / High Secret @ 9.50/1 (3/1 & 13/8 : Hills & BetVictor)
Rock Heroine / Shades of Silver @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : Hills)