Stat of the Day, 5th June 2015
Thursday’s race and subsequent win was a good reminder of a couple of fairly obvious but occasionally forgotten things.
Firstly, that drifters can still win (the horse doesn’t know nobody’s backing him!) and secondly that you really must use BOG bookies whenever possible.
I put Steel Summit up and was really happy to get 4/1, expecting him to go off around 5/2, but he was sent off at an amazing 6/1, before proceeding to make all, jump brilliantly and coast home by 8 lengths for the second race in a row.
He defied an 8lb rise and on that showing could handle yet another rise and still win again. Back to back wins for SotD have put us in a good position early in the month and I’ll be seeking a hat-trick via Friday’s…
A Class 5, 5 furlong handicap on ground currently described as good with good to firm patches, where Ann Duffield’s Landing Night seeks a third win in six outings and back-to-back course and distance wins in the space of a week.
Ann Duffield has got her horses playing a fine tune at present, with 4 winners from just 12 runners in the last 7 days and she particularly likes coming here to Catterick. Since 2010 her horses priced at 6/4 to 10/1 have won 14 of 65 (21.5% SR) races here for 38.2pts (+58.8% ROI) profit.
Her 5f runners here in that time are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 8pts (+44.4% ROI) profit and with the weather forecast to be fine, the quicker ground should suit Ann’s runner here, as on Good/Good to Firm ground, they are 12/47 (25.5% SR) for 49.8pts at an ROI of 105.9%.
Today’s jockey is the in-form PJ McDonald who has ridden 6 winners from 20 in the last week and also has a good record here at Catterick, winning on 34 of his 262 (13% SR) mounts for 89pts (+34% ROI) profit since 2010 and in handicap contests he is 25/184 (13.6% SR) for 100pts (+54.4% ROI) and over trips of 5 furlongs, he is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 46.7pts (+129.8% ROI).
And if you backed the Ann Duffield horses ridden by PJ McDonald here at Catterick since the start of the 2013 campaign, you would have backed 7 winners from 32 (21.9% SR) for 31.2pts profits at an ROI of 97.4% with all 7 winners coming from the 18 runners priced at 10/1 or shorter with that 38.9% strike rate yielding 45.2pts profit (+250.9% ROI)
As for Landing Night, this is only his eighth start, so there isn’t a vast bank of stats/data to call upon, but I can tell you that he was a course and distance winner here a week ago and he has won two and been placed in two of his five starts at 5 furlongs. He is 1 from 1 running within a week of his last run, 1 from 1 in cheekpieces and 2 from 3 when sent off as favourite, which is likely here.
He has, of course, been raised 6lbs for that most recent success, but as a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, he does receive a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, enabling him to remain competitive and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Landing Night go in again at 3/1 BOG.
I’ll be reinvesting with Bet365 once again, but the same 3/1 BOG price is available with Betfair SB, BetVictor and Hills, so you should be able to pick your preferred bookie by…
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