Double Dutch, 5th June 2015
Rock Heroine beat Light Breaks by 7 lengths at Wolverhampton yesterday, but unfortunately she herself was a further 7 lengths behind the winner back in third place, meaning the double was down long before we got to Kempton, where I got it right and wrong at the same time!
I expected the 7/4 High Secret to win conmfortably and mainly at the expense of the 3/1 Shades of Silver, so much so that when the former drifted out slightly to 2/1, I advised it as a selection elsewhere!
What happened was that they switched prices and whilst I got the winner, it was the “wrong” winner for me, if you follow. Shades was sent off at 7/4 and won, whilst High Secret only beat one other runner home.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Rock Heroine : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Light Breaks : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/4)
Shades of Silver: WON at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
High Secret : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
591 winning selections from 2070 = 28.55%
187 winning bets in 536 days = 34.89%
P/L : +105.42pts (+9.84% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A busy day today, so let’s crack on with these for Friday…
Although not winning as often as connections would like, there’s no doubting that Shear Rock has some ability. 5 consecutive top 4 finishes before finally winning last time out confirms his consistency and with him never beaten by far, looks the one to beat if the same positive tactics as last time out are used.
In the past he’s been held up for a run, but despite staying on has never had the speed needed to rein the winners in. He made all last time out and won by 13 lengths. The yard is in good nick and a repeat of that gameplan should get Shear Rock home at 11/4 BOG (Betfair).
There are a couple with chances here, but I’m going with last year’s winner, Bowie as the backup at a decent price. He has only raced 4 times since that win and although he hasn’t won since, he’s always been there or thereabouts (4243). His latest run was the best of the four and he looks like coming back to form with a 2 length defeat here over a longer trip almost three weeks ago.
He’s just 5lbs higher than last year and with this renewal looking a weaker affair than 2014 with not much winning form on offer from his six rivals, Bowie could chase the selction home at 13/2 BOG (SkyBet).
Saeed bin Suroor’s horses are constantly winning around 25% of their races and their recent fine form was highlghted with 2 winners and 2 runners-up from their four runners yesterday. The yard has just two runners today and the 7/4 BOG My Call must represent their best chance of prize money. And whilst an opening handicap mark of 89 might look a little punitive, it’s worth remembering that the yard does exceptionally well with handicap debutantes.
We should also note that she beat two horses rated 75 and 76 into 2nd & 3rd by 6L and 7.5L last time out and she’s likely to improve further for having had the run. Her mark of 89 is effectively just 81 today thanks to the weight for age allowance and there’s every possibility that My Call‘s better than that already.
Escrick is the current 2nd favourite at a generally available 9/2 BOG and that’s probably about right in my opinion. She’d been off the track for almost 31 weeks when making her seasonal reappearance at Lingfield (good, not A/W) 16 days ago. She ran really well and was only beaten by one of her 13 rivals there, going down by three parts of a length.
The winner had already had the benefit of two runs this season, so was more race-ready and went into the contest on the back of a win last time out. Escrick‘s run was decent if unsuccessful and any further progression for that run should keep her in contention here today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Shear Rock / My Call @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Shear Rock / Escrick @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : generally)
Bowie / My Call @ 18.69/1 (13/2 & 13/8 : SkyBet)
Bowie / Escrick @ 40.25/1 (13/2 & 9/2 : SkyBet)