Stat of the Day, 8th June 2015
Despite getting beaten, I felt we got a really good run for our money from Subcontinent at Doncaster on Saturday. He seemed to run the race the way he wanted it and attempted to win it up the rail from a fair way out.
Unfortunately, he found one too good for him and we had to settle for second best, a couple of lengths adrift come the post. We did, however, once again smash the SP by taking 100/30 about an 11/8 favourite, some thing that can only lead to profit in the long run.
Subcontinent’s effort rounded off a really good wekk for us, where we hit three winners and 2 runners-up from our our six selections : form I’ll be looking to maintain via Monday’s…
A Class 4 handicap over 1m2f on good to firm ground, where I’ve just taken 100/30 BOG about Roger Varian’s 4yr old gelding Go Sakhee.
Longer-term readers of SotD (ie from 2014 and earlier) will recall that I’ve a bit of a soft spot for Roger Varian’s runners and have (successfully!) used them for SotD in the past. The simple reason for doing this is because they make me money! At this point, I should make it clear that every selection I make for Stat of the Day is backed by me using my own cash (I was going to say hard-earned, but that might be pushing the envelope a bit! 😀 )
The above is also true for both the Double Dutch and Stat Picks, but they’re a separate issue!
Anyway, back to the task in hand. I back Roger Varian’s flat handicappers, because backing all of them has resulted in 101 winners from 522 bets (19.4% SR) to date and if you’d had tenner on each of them, you’d now be £940 to the good or an 18% return on stakes invested. These are excellent figures from blind backing, but if you want fewer bets from one trainer, those handicappers can be classified as follows…
- running on good ground or quicker : 82/394 (20.8% SR) for 120.9pts (+30.7% ROI)
- priced at 12/5 to 14/1 : 75/390 (19.2% SR) for 121.7pts (+31.2% ROI)
- competing at Classes 4 to 6 : 70/283 (24.7% SR) for 94pts (+33.2% ROI)
- running at trips of 9 to 12.5 f : 49/215 (22.8% SR) for 106.1pts (+49.3% ROI)
- here at Windsor : 8/25 (32% SR) for 18.2pts (+72.8% ROI)
As you can see, the stats are pretty consistent throughout with healthy strike rates and good profits / ROIs. You can mix and match the above to create your own little micro-systems, or you could stipulate that all criteria be fulfilled before making a bet. If that’s the way you want to play it, I can tell you that…
Roger Varian’s Class 4 to 6 flat handicappers running over 9f to 12.5f on good ground or quicker at odds of 12/5 to 14/1 are 26/76 (34.2% SR) for 119.5pts (+157.2% ROI) with a 3/7 (42.9% SR) record here at Windsor producing 13.7ps (+195.7% ROI).
One of those Windsor winners was today’s pick Go Sakhee, who won over course and distance this time last year on his very first attampt at today’s trip, where his record now reads 153123. He closed last season out with a 6 lengths victory in a Ripon handicap before going down by just a head on his final run of 2014 at Sandown.
He was beaten by less than two lengths last time out (3 weeks ago at Leicester), but looked like he needed the run after 8 months off the track. As well as stripping fitter for having had the run and enough time to get over it, the booking of Ryan Moore for a rare ride (2 wins from just 10 rides on Roger’s horses to date!) is definitely a positive move to me.
No disrespect intended to Freddie Tylicki who is 3123 on the horse, but Ryan is expected to eke a bit more out of Go Sakhee on a track he rides well in similar conditions to this evening. Closer analysis of Ryan’s stats reveal that since the start of the 2011 campaign, he has ridden 16 winners from 50 (32% SR) runners priced at 2/1 to 10/1 in Class 4 handicaps here at Windsor, generating 32.5pts (+65% ROI) profits in the process.
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