Stat of the Day, 9th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2015

Go Sakhee was the filling in a 3-horse sandwich at a vital point of Monday evening’s contest and had to break his momentum at a time he needed to be picking up the tempo.

I doubt whether he had enough left in his locker after running a bit too freely early on, but I’d have thought he’d have been closer to the eventual winner than the near-5 length margin of defeat he actually suffered.

I don’t agree with the “expert” on ATR who suggested he’d ran poorly, but I suspect the guy was talking through his pocket, having tipped the horse just before the off. 4th place at 11/4 (adv 100/30) wasn’t the result we wanted, but it was far from poor.

We now go again in the…

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3.25 Salisbury:

A Class 5 handicap for 3 yr olds over 5f on good to firm ground, where I’ve just taken 9/2 BOG about Roger Charlton’s in-form filly Star Fire, who seeks a second win in three starts this season.

Roger’s horses are running well, if not spectacularly at present, but a 6 from 34 (17.6% SR) record over the past month is creditable enough, as is his 14/86 record here at Salisbury since 2009. That 16.3% strike rate has yielded 8.7pts of level stakes profit at a modest but useful ROI of 10.1% with the horses priced at 2/1 to 9/1 winning 10 of 46 (21.7% SR) for 19.3pts at a much more palatable 42% ROI.

Jockey George Baker is also going well. Aside from winning Monday’s SotD race, he’s 4/15 in the past week and 21/112 ( 18.75% SR) in the past two months, which is consistently good. Since the start of the 2013 season, he has ridden 7 winners from his 41 rides (17.1% SR) here at Salisbury for profits of 16pts at an attractive ROI of 39%, of which…

  • he’s 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+185.8% ROI) at Class 5
  • he’s 4/22 (18.2% SR) in handicaps
  • and at odds of 7/1 and shorter here, he is 6 from 20 (30% SR) for 12.5pts at an ROI of 62.4%.

Since 2011, the Baker / Charlton partnership is worth 34 winners from 163 rides, marginally better than 1-in-5 at 20.9% and in Class 5 handicaps with horses priced at 2/1 to 6/1, they are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 9pts (+75% ROI) profit.

Star Fire is also a qualifier from a micro-system I use that I call 1-2/3/4. Basically horses that won two starts ago (ie 1) followed by a 2nd to 4th finish last out (2/3/4!). There are, of course, more rules to it than that, but that’s just the starting point.

Such horses aged 3 to 5 running at trips of 5f to 10f on the flat and whose 2/3/4 run was 16 to 60 days ago are 255/1486 (17.2% SR) for 162.8pts at an ROI of 11%. To refine that large dataset into a more manageable size and something more relevant to this race, we can look at those now competing over 5 to 7 furlongs at Classes 4 to 6, where we have 75 winners from 349 (21.5% SR) runners and 166.1pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% to date.

Star Fire found Goodwood a little too sharp last time out and the return to an easier/galloping track and a 2lb easing in her mark should help her return to the form shown at Nottingham two starts ago. She’s currently available in most places at 4/1 BOG, but the standout price you should try to get is the 9/2 BOG from Paddy Power. That’s what I’ve taken and you can check if that’s still the case by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 3.25 Salisbury

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Here is today’s racecard.

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