Double Dutch, 9th June 2015
My current cold spell continued yesterday, as I managed to hit three placers but no winners. Close, but no cigar, one might say.
Strong Steps attracted a bit of money to firm up into a 15/8 favourite at Ayr, but was headed inside the final furlong and had to settle for a 2.5 length defeat as a runner-up. Quest of Colour had drifted from 10/3 to 9/1 and ran accordingly, finishing 8th of 10.
At Windsor, I got our runners in the right order and both in the frame, but we had to settle for 2nd and 3rd, as our runners couldn’t quite get to the leader.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Strong Steps : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Quest of Colour : 8th at 9/1 (adv 10/3)
Cartmell Cleeve : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Lady Kyllar : 3rd at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
593 winning selections from 2082 = 28.48%
187 winning bets in 539 days = 34.69%
P/L : +99.42pts (+9.23% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Tuesdays runners are as follows…
La Madonnina was a winner two starts and two weeks ago here over course and distance when scoring easily by 13 lengths and looked set to follow that up last time out with another win, despite stepping up in trip.
She was clear of the pack approaching the last, but fell at that point, with tiredness possibly a factor. She can probably consider herself unlucky not to be seeking a hat-trick today, but the drop back in trip should play to her strengths and La Madonnina looks a solid pick at around the 3/1 BOG mark.
With question marks about many of her rivals, there’s one at a big price that’s interesting: the 13 yr old veteran Herecomesthetruth who is surprisingly long at 10/1 BOG coming off the back of a win at Huntingdon last time out.
He’s clearly not as good as he was, when he won 8 of his first 11 races over obstacles and that recent win was his first in 16 attempts, although he had 8 top 4 finishes in that run. He retains some ability for sure and although an unlikely winner, Herecomesthetruth looks the best of the rest behind La Madonnina.
This looks a desperate affair to be honest, but does represent the best chance yet for the recently disppointing Castorienta to get back into some kind of form. A drop in class allied to favourable conditions should bring out a more from her, as shee’s aready won twice at this trip and has been a close ruinner-up in both her previous outings on good to firm ground.
Whether you’d really want to back her as a single as short as 7/4 BOG is open to discussion, I probably wouldn’t but as half of a double is a different proposition. The reason I wouldn’t want Castorienta as a single at that price is becasue Gabrials Wawa probably offers more value at 7/2 BOG and has about the same chance of winning in my eyes.
He was in good form here (2112) at the start of the year, albeit on the A/W and although not at his best on his return to turf last time out, the firm ground at Leicester 8 days ago was possibly a little too quick for him and for a horse who since debut has run 16 of his 22 races within 30 days of his prevous outing, a 3 month absence probably meant Gabrials Wawa needed the run.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
La Madonnina / Castorienta @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Bet365)
La Madonnina / Gabrials Wawa @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet & Coral)
Herecomesthetruth / Castorienta @ 26.50/1 (9/1 & 7/4 : Bet365)
Herecomesthetruth / Gabrials Wawa @ 48.50/1 (10/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)