Stat of the Day, 10th June 2015
Tuesday was one of those nearly days for myself and Messrs Charlton & Baker. Jockey George had two rides for Roger at Salisbury, I backed them both, I beat SP both times, they both ran well and both finished second!
Chauvelin was beaten by three parts of a length an hour after SotD pick Star Fire had just failed by a neck at 3/1 after we’d taken a juicy 9/2 BOG. However you get nothing for coming second with straight win bets, so it’s a point conceded to the bookies, but I’ll be trying to win it back in the…
A Class 4 A/W handicap over 7f, where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about Ian’s Memory, who Richard Hughes will ride for Jeremy Noseda.
Jeremy’s record with horses priced at 6/1 or shorter in A/W handicaps since the start of 2010 is 45/146 (30.8% SR) for 13.9pts profit at an ROI of 9.5%, but since the start of 2014, the figures are much more impressive at 14/36 (38.9% SR) for 13.23pts (+36.6% ROI).
Of those 36 runners, the record here at Kempton is 7/14 (50% SR) for 7.6pts (+54.3% ROI).
Also, since 2009, jockey Richard Hughes’ record in Class 4/5 handicaps here at Kempton on horses in the 2/1 to 11/1 price range is 41/203 (20.2% SR) for 55.1pts (+27.2% ROI), of which he’s 36/153 (23.5% SR) for 83.4pts (+54.5% ROI) over trips of 5f to 1m2f and at those trips, he’s 4/16 (25% SR) for 11pts (+68.6% ROI) since the start of 2014.
Richard Hughes doesn’t ride too often for Jeremy Noseda, but since the start of 2010 in handicaps on horses priced at 4/1 or shorter, they are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 16.8pts (+139.8% ROI) together.
Some trainers do better than others with their handicappers that haven’t over-raced their horses and get better results with horses that are fresh. Jeremy Noseda has a good record with horses that have only raced once in the previous 90 days and with Ian’s Memory having last raced 10 weeks ago after a 9-week break, he fulfils the criteria of Noseda handicappers with just one run in the last 90 days.
Since 2009, such runners are 32/111 (28.8% SR) for 25.6pts profit at an ROI of 23.1%. On the A/W, the figures are 16/42 (38.1% SR) for 25.2pts (+59.9% ROI) with those priced at 6/1 or shorter winning 15 of 29 (51.7% SR) for 22.4pts (+77.4% ROI) profit.
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