Stat of the Day, 13th June 2015
Friday was possibly one race too far for Brody Bleu as he chased a 5-timer, but the worsening weather/ground conditions won’t have helped his cause.
He’d travelled well enough near the head of affairs well into the second half of the race, but a mistake at one of the fences seemed to just drain him and he was struggling from a long way out. He didn’t respond to the jockey’s coaxing and just completed the race at his own pace.
Fair play for toughing it out and getting round, but he was the last of four finishers, a good way off the pace. At least by finishing, he picked up a little prize money which would hopefully cover the cost of his day out!
Last shot at glory this week comes via the…
A Class 4, 8-runner handicap for fillies over 1m 4.5f on good ground where I’ve just taken 100/30 BOG about Poetic Verse, who is…
…trained by John (JJ) Quinn, who has a career strike rate of 15.7% (16/102) here at Chester and more relevantly/recently, he’s 9/39 (23.1% SR) for 10.25pts (+26.3% ROI) profit here since the start of the 2011 campaign.
And in Chester handicaps at odds of 9/4 to 15/2, his runners are 6/15 (40% SR) for 24.2pts at an ROI of 161.5%.
Joe Doyle is in the saddle today boasting a 10/63 (15.9% SR) record on John Quinn’s horses that has produced profits of 65.7pts (+104.3% ROI) to date and he’ll be looking to put his 3lb claim to good use, especially considering that…
…John Quinn has a good record with 3lb claimers.
Since the start of the 2010 season, jockeys claiming 3lbs on board John’s horses are 20/129 (15.5% SR) for 61.3pts (+47.6% ROI) profit with those in that 9/4 to 15/2 price range as before, winning 15 of 56 (26.8% SR) for 35.7pts (+63.7% ROI).
Poetic Verse was kept fit over the summer with some creditable runs over hurdles and has been in good progressive form since getting back on the level. She’s 432 in three starts since the spell over timber, improving with each run, culminating in a good second place in a decent handicap at Pontefract three weeks ago.
She gets to run off the same mark here and now that she’s only racing against her own sex, she has to be a major player here.
One last thing is the addition of first-time cheekpieces today that could/should just get a bit more from her and it’s worth pointing out that since the beginning of 2012, John Quinn’s horses priced at 4/1 or shorter in first-time cheekpieces are 4/8 (50% SR) for 9.3pts (+116.25% ROI) profit.
I think this race is ideal for Poetic Verse to add to her tally of 4 wins from 11 at the trip and the 100/30 BOG on offer from Paddy Power is currently the best in town, but there’s plenty of 3/1 BOG around too, as can be seen by…
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