Stat of the Day, 15th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2015

Poetic Verse produced a gutsy run at Chester on Saturday in a race where it paid to come from off the pace. Tapped for toe around the final bend, she had a good four or five lengths to make up on the leading duo, which she just about managed to do on the line.

Unfortunately for us/her, Rowlestone Lass had come from even further back to bag her first ever win on turf, leaving us just over a length adrift in second place. No complaints here, she was just beaten by a better finisher on the day.

It’s a family affair in the North on Monday in the…

3.15 Carlisle:

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Where the 22 yr old claimer Gemma Tutty will ride the 4/1 BOG Mercers Row for her mother, Karen.

Karen’s horses have tended to do well here at Carlisle of late, winning 6 of 24 (25% SR) races since the start of 2013, generating level stakes profits of 16.9pts at an ROI of 70.5%. On the Flat here, her runners are 6/20 (30% SR) for 20.9pts (+104.6% ROI) with her handicappers winning 4 of 16 (25% SR) for 14.9pts (+93% ROI).

Daughter Gemma rides the course very well too, it must be said, with her own 6/21 (28.6% SR) record bearing profits of 19.9pts at an ROI of 94.9% with handicap races showing a record of 4 wins from 17 (23.5% SR) for 13.9pts (+81.7% ROI).

The two sets of data are, of course, intrinsically linked, as Gemma tends to do most of her riding for mum and since 2011 the partnership has an overall record of 18 winners from 138 runners (13% SR) over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs, which has produced profits of 207pts at an ROI of 150%, broken down as follows…

  • at Class 5/6 level : 16/119 (13.4% SR) for 211.7pts (+177.9% ROI)
  • in handicaps : 14/106 (13.2% SR) for 103.3pts (+97.5% ROI)
  • here at Carlisle : 6/18 (33.33% SR) for 22.9pts (+127.3% ROI
  • in Class 5/6 handicaps : 12/87 (13.8% SR) for 108.1pts (+124.2% ROI)
  • Class 5/6 hcps at Carlisle : 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 9.6pts (+137.3% ROI)

Mercers Row is no stranger to the race course and has won 6 times from 54 outings with a 6/50 record (12% SR) record on ther Flat that has generated 26.2pts (+52.4% ROI) profit from blindly backing him. That’s a decent return for just following one horse, but those figures can be refined…

When rated (OR) 61 to 69, he is 6/31 (19.4% SR) for 45.2pts (+145.9% ROI) and when in that ratings bracket, he is 6/25 (24% SR) for 51.2pts (+204.8% ROI) in fields of 6 to 13 runners.

He’s showing signs of coming into some form again, having won at Thirsk two starts ago, before getting beaten by just a neck here at Carlisle last time out, three weeks ago, he has won here in the past and was also the runner-up in this very race last year beaten by just a short head off a mark 1lb higher than today.

This looks a fairly weak affair and there could well be some value in taking the early 4/1 BOG about Mercers Row. I’m already on with Bet365, but you can see what the other firms are quoting by…

…clicking here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

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Here is today’s racecard.

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