Stat of the Day, 16th June 2015
Young Gemma Tutty was coolness personified at Carlisle on Monday afternoon as she steered Mercers Row to a pretty comfortable 4 lengths victory at an SP of 3/1.
Having tacked across from a wide draw, she deliberately held her mount up so she drop right in at the back of the pack to contentedly sit and wait. So she sat and she waited and when the leading runners set off for home, she still waited until the right time to go. She then switched Mercers Row out to the left so he had a clear passage down the centre of the track.
And all he did from there was stay on and on and pass every rival on his way to the post. It really was a perfect ride and the cherry on top was getting paid out at 4/1!
From the North to the South now for Tuesday’s…
Where John Bridger’s Live Dangerously will attempt to confirm his return to form with a second successive course and distance win in the space of a fortnight and he’s rated at 11/4 BOG to do so.
Since 2009, John Bridger’s horses have won 25 of the 183 (13.7% SR) handicap contests they have tackled here at Brighton, producing level stakes profits of 37.7pts at a useful 20.6% ROI, with those priced at 7/1 or shorter winning 19 of 67 (28.4% SR) for 35.3pts (+52.7% ROI).
With today’s jockey William Carson in the saddle, the Bridger string are 10/40 (25% SR) for 59.8pts (+149.6% ROI) in Brighton handicaps with those sent off at 7/1 or shorter winning 7 of 18 (38.9% SR) for 22.3pts (+123.9% ROI).
Live Dangerously returned to form after a lengthy cold spell by winning with something in hand over course and distance a fortnight ago, yet has only been raised 2lbs for his efforts, keeping him competitive here. His cold spell was 11 consecutive defeats and he had failed to make the frame in each of his last 5 runs.
Since the start of the 2010 season, Class 3 to 6 Flat handicappers who won last time out after a string of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts are 106/743 (14.3% SR) for 149.3pts (+20.1% ROI) when running within 4 to 30 days of that win LTO and at the same class of 1 grade higher / at no more than 1f shorter or longer than LTO and are rated (OR) 0 to 4lbs higher.
In races shorter than 9 furlongs the record is 84/570 (14.7% SR) for 171.8pts (+30.1% ROI) with those raised 2lbs for their win doubling up on 15 of 80 (18.8% SR) occasions for 66.2pts (+82.7% ROI) profit.
And Live Dangerously‘s return to form was over this very course and distance, so that should hold no fears for him and it’s worth noting that since 2012, John Bridger’s handicappers who were LTO winners returning to the site of a Course and Distance win, won again on 5 of 25 (20% SR) occasions for profits of 4.6pts (+18.4% ROI).
Those priced at 4/1 or shorter are 4/6 for 12pts profit with Brighton runners showing 2 wins from 7 and 7.5pts profit.
We’re certainly not getting the 201 odds he landed a fortnight ago, but I’m confident of Live Dangerously going in again here, so I’m getting on at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, using some of Monday’s winnings! 5/2 BOG is the best of the rest, as you’ll see by…
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