Stat of the Day, 17th June 2015
For the second day in a row, we landed a winner aided by an enterprising piece of riding. William Carson bagged the rail for Live Dangerously and as they approached Brighton’s elbow/cutaway, he stole a bit of a march on the field and got first run for home.
He pulled away readily on the run-in to such an extent that he was able to ease the horse down once the job was done and still won by two lengths.
We almost got a bonus payout at 7/2, but the price contracted pretty much at the off to 5/2, meaning that our 11/4 BOG was the best price after all. A further 2.75pts in the pot means that with a fortnight of the month to go, we’re already guaranteed profit for June and I’m aiming to kick on for more winners starting with Wednesday’s…
A Class 4, 3m 2f handicap chase on good ground where you can currently get 3/1 BOG about the 9yr old Greenlaw. Chasrlie Longsdon’s runner is in fine form having finished 131 in his three runs this year and was last seen winning by 6 lengths at Worcester three weeks ago, under today’s jockey Noel Fehily.
Charlie’s runners are in good nick, having won 8 of 25 races in the last 30 days, whilst independently of the trainer’s successes, Noel Fehily has ridden 11 winners from 46 in the same time frame, so both are going really well.
Charlie has a good record with his handicap chasers, especially at this sharper end of the market and since the start of 2009, those priced at 11/8 to 4/1 (which is where we’ll be here!) are 65/213 (30.5% SR) for 36.3pts (+127% ROI) profit with a 2/6 record here at Uttoxeter bearing 2.34pts.
From those 213 chasers, class 4/5 runners are 40/119 (33.6% SR) for 36.7pts (+30.8% ROI), whilst those competing over trips of 2m6f to 3m4f are 38/109 (34.9% SR) for 39.5pts (+36.2% ROI).
Charlie Longsdon’s Class 4 handicap chasers priced at 11/8 to 4/1 running over 2m6f to 3m4f are 20/51 (39.2% SR) for 27.2pts at an ROI of 53.3%
Here at Uttoxeter, the Longsdon jumpers are 14/54 (25.9% SR) for 21.1pts (+39.1% ROI) profit at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 since 2008, whilst those priced at 7/4 to 4/1 are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 15.7pts (+54.1% ROI).
Jockey Noel Fehily, as well as being in prime form, is 15/50 (30% SR) for 21.95pts (+43.9% ROI) here at Uttoxeter since the start of 2013 and in handicap races over obstacles, he is 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 17.7pts (+61% ROI) and at odds of 4/1 and shorter, he has 6 wins from 13 (46.2% SR) here for profits of 13.5pts at an ROI of 104.1%.
As I mentioned earlier, Greenlaw was a winner by 6 lengths at Worcester 20 days ago and Charlie Longsdon’s handciap chasers turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out are 15/49 (30.6% SR) for 2pts profit at a modest return of just 4.1%, but if the market likes them, it’s usually a good sign, as those priced 6/5 to 4/1 are 13/26 (50% SR) for 16.2pts (+62.4% ROI).
And…male class 4 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out and then run again after a break of 11 to 150 days are 113/438 (25.8% SR) for 91pts (+20.8% ROI) profit.
As for Greenlaw, well we know he’s in good form and in chases, he is 2/3 on good ground, 2/5 under Noel Fehily, 2/5 at Class 4, 2/3 in fields of 8 to 11 runners, 2/5 with a tongue tie and 2/34 as a 9yr old!
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