Stat of the Day, 18th June 2015
For the third time this week we landed ourselves a winner thanks to more terrific performances from both horse and jockey.
For his part, Noel Fehily was strong in restraining his mount who really wanted to get on with things early on, but settled the boy down and waited until the optimum time to ask the question.
As for Greenlaw, he ansered the question emphatically and when push came to shove, he was tougher than the leader, took the lead at the last and opened up a four length gap by the time he hit the line, giving a hat-trick of wins for the week at 3/1 BOG, half a point longer than SP.
Thursday looks tricky aiming for the four-timer, but there’s one I like the chances of in the…
But we’re not going to get rich backing the 2yr old Criminalistic at 9/4 BOG, but I’d expect a decent run for our money on his second outing, having previously finished third at Wolverhampton (beaten by four lengths, but not knocked about) a fortnight ago.
He’s trained by friend of SotD, Charlie Appleby, who has an excellent 40 from 113 (35.4% SR) record on this Lingfield track, that has yielded 37.1pts profit at an ROI of 32.9% to date. That’s blind backing, no filters, no caveats etc.
Last year, 5 of his 15 2yr olds were winners here, with those priced at Evens to 9/2 winnng 4 of 11 (36.4pts ) for 1.9pts (+17.3% ROI) profit, whilst Charlie’s overall record in Maidens here is 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 5.9pts (+25.6% ROI) from those sent off at odds ranging from 8/11 to 3/1.
Criminalistic‘s debut run gives us grounds for optimism, as he’s highly likely to come on for the experience as many of the Appleby string have done in the past and Charlie’s quite fond of turning horses back out fairly quickly after a decent run, if he thinks he can get them to improve.
In fact, Charlie’s runners who were top 4 finishers last time out and were sent out again after a break of just 4 to 15 days (ie enough time to recover, but not too much!) are 63 from 165 (38.2% SR) for 31.5pts (+19.1% ROI) profit, from which we can filter as follows…
…those priced at 7/2 or shorter are 58/119 (48.7% SR) for 36.4pts (+30.6% ROI), of which…
…those beaten into 2nd, 3rd or 4th by no more than four lengths LTO are 34/68 (50% SR) for 27.8pts (+40.9% ROI), of which…
…those now running on the A/W are 17/33 (51.5% SR) for 14.4pts (+43.5% ROI).
Criminalistic is a half-brother to stablemate Wordcraft, whose current record stands at 2 from 2, so there’s clearly some pace and ability in the bloodline and he probably wouldn’t have to improve too much to take this at 9/4 BOG.
Like I said at the top of the piece, we’re not making enough to retire on if hew does win, but 9/4 BOG could still prove to be a decent price come teatime. I’m on with Betfair Sportsbook, using some of the proceeds from Greenlaw’s win, but you can get the price from both Bet365 and Paddy Power, as seen by…
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