Stat of the Day, 20th June 2015
Ruaraidh Hugh showed us again how much he likes racing at Market Rasen by securing a 10 lengths victory, as he was the one with most left at the end.
Those who haven’t seen him race before might have been ripping their slips up with about 4 furlongs to run, as he looked beaten and had to be ridden, but this seems to be common about his past runs and he invariably gets a second wind and powers for home.
He made a bit of a rick 4 from home, but recovered well to land the spoils at 9/4, three quarters of a spoint shorter than our advised 3/1 odds.
It has been a terrific week for SotD and I’d love to close it out with a 5th winner from 6 picks via Saturday’s…
A Class 6, 5 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where I’ve just taken 4/1 BOG about David O’Meara’s 3yr old filly, Jebediah Shine.
David O’Meara’s record here at Redcar stands at 36 winners from 214 runners (16.8% SR) for level stakes profits of 31.6pts at an ROI of 14.6% from blindly backing all of them. In handicap contests, the record is improved to 27/146 (18.5% SR) for 34.8pts (+23.9% ROI).
That 27/146 record in handicaps can be further analysed as follows…
- those priced at 15/8 to 12/1 : 26/105 (24.8% SR) for 73.6pts (+70.1% ROI)
- those running at Class 6 : 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 30.9pts (+59.5% ROI)
- those competing over 5 furlongs : 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 13.7pts (+72.2% ROI)
Jebediah Shine was a winner as recently as Tuesday, when scoring quite comfortably by a length and a half over 5f at Thirsk in a similar standard race as she faces today. She is raised 6lbs from an OR of 63 to today’s 69, but the presence of Josh Doyle in the saddle with his 7lb claim effectively makes her a pound better off.
The fact that she runs in similar conditions to a very recent win makes her of interest to me, as she fits the profile of horses I look out for who run within five days of a win last time out. There are, of course, other criteria that need to be fulfilled and they are, as follows…
Won LTO 1-5 days ago / now priced at 11/10 to 13/2 /running at the same (OR) mark as LTO or up to 7lbs higher / same class as LTO or up one grade / running over a trip no more than 1f different to LTO (longer or shorter) / must have a previous win at today’s distance.
That might look complicated, but it really isn’t, it’s just harder to put in words than it is to implement it!
Anyway, since the start of 2011, this micro-system has produced 141 winners from 423 runners (33.33% SR) and 125.2pts at an ROI of 29.6%. You can, of course, break the figures down in a variety of ways, but with today’s conditions in mind, we see that…
- competing at the same trip as LTO : 100/314 (31.9% SR) for 72pts (+22.9% ROI)
- running at the same class : 97/279 (34.8% SR) for 88.5pts (+31.7% ROI)
- those now rated (OR) 6lbs higher : 82/259 (31.7% SR) for 74.3pts (+28.7% ROI)
You can combine all those three subsets to create a really tight micro-system that has found 38 winners from just 123 (30.9% SR) runners and profits of 29.1pts at an ROI of 23.7%. From this, the record over 5 furlongs is 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 9.4pts (+31.4% ROI).
So, based on the above stats and the fact that Jebediah Shine is effectively a pound lighter than her win at Thirsk, she could well take some beating, especially as that Thirsk outing was her first in 19 weeks and she could very strip fitter for the run.
All in all, I think 4/1 BOG looks quite generous and I’ve gone with Betfair Sportsbook for my wager, but you can get the same odds with both BetVictor and Hills by…
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