Double Dutch, 20th June 2015
SP winners at 13/8 and 5/4 combining to make a winning double at 4.91/1 aren’t going to make us rich quickly, but thankfully we took the early price of 5/2 about both of them. After all, who backs at SP?
Our subsequent 11.25/1 double was reduced after Rule 4 deductions down to 9.94/1, which still gave us 202% of SP, after wins for Fit the Bill and Jacobean.
Fit The Bill only hit the front late on and had to be driven all out to hold on to a slender margin of a head at the post (I told you it wouldn’t be long before we got the right side of a tight one!), whilst Jacobean was very positive and pretty much made all after 2f on his way to a 2 lengths win.
I’d actually preferred Chenega Bay in that race and whilst beaten, ran well enough to grab second, landing us a small (2.92/1) forecast into the bargain.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Fit The Bill : WON at 13/8 (adv 5/2 = 17/8 after R4)
Novancia : 5th at 11/2 (adv 2/1 = 17/10 after R4)
Jacobean : WON at 5/4 (adv 5/2)
Chenega Bay : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
The forecast paid out at 2.92/1 here
Results to date:
603 winning selections from 2119 = 28.42%
190 winning bets in 549 days = 34.49%
P/L : +114.58pts (+10.44% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday marks the day 550 milestone for DD with these tea-time selections…
Luis Vaz de Torres is interesting here after just two previous starts on the A/W around the turn of the year. Allthough excusably green on debut at Wolverhampton over 6f on debut, he still ran well enough at 66/1 to take the race by 0.75 lengths ahead of a 4/5 fav. Roger Varian’s Ershaad was a further neck behind in third at 7/4 that day and has gone on to win his only run since.
LVdT then stepped down to 5f and although staying on towards the finish was outpaced into 3rd place, 3 lengths behind Blue Aegean, who has since won at Class 3, been a runner up at CLass2 and got within 5 lengths of a Listed win at York last month. Richard Fahey has a great record with horses coming back off a break and I think Luis Vaz de Torres has a good shout here at 7/2 BOG.
To get a second win in three starts, he’ll have to beat Subversive, though. This fellow 3 yr old comes here in good nick, having finished as runner-up in each of his last two starts, most recently going down by a neck at Goodwood 8 days ago, where there was no disgrace in losing to a decent looking Hannon/Hughes runner competing off a mark of 83 (Subversive is 82 here).
He has admittedly yet to win on turf after those two recent 2nd place finishes, but the selection above aside, this looks like one of the weaker events he’s faced and the fact that he’s a triple winner at today’s trip should help. If my main pick isn’t quite race-ready, then I’d fully expect Subversive to be the one to benefit at 9/4 BOG.
Outback Ruler returned to action in April and finished 5th of 8 runners, beaten by 8.5 lengths and really looked like he needed the run after a 24-week absence from the track. Since then, he has been teamed up with jockey Steve Drowne and the pair of them are 2 from 2 together, winning over a mile at Chepstow by a shorthead and then by a length and a quarter over today’s 7f trip at Haydock three weeks ago.
This means that having been 0/8 in his short career, he’s now 2/10 and chasing a hat-trick! There are, of course, some doubts about his ability to pull it off, based on his past efforts on quicker ground and also the fact that he’s now 13lbs higher than he was two starts ago. But he’s clearly thriving under his new jockey and Outback Ruler could very well go in again at 11/4 BOG.
The one to beat, however, is likely to be the unexposed Use Your Filbert, who makes only his third start today and his first at 7f. He was a winner on debut at Haydock in September 2014, where he stayed on strongly in the closing stages over 6f to just get up by a head in the final strides at a big 33/1. He was then put back in the shed for 260 days before reappearing four weeks ago.
That second outing was also over 6f at Haydock and once again he stayed on well in the closing stages, but looked a little rusty early on but made up ground to finish third. he was a length and a quarter behind the 50/1 runner-up that day with that horse going on to win next time out (Leicester last Saturday) and with naturally expected progression from a third start, allied to having had a recent run and receiving 9lbs from the selection above, Use Your Filbert is attreactively priced at 11/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Subversive / Outback Ruler @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Paddy Power)
Subversive / Use Your Filbert @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Boylesports, Seanie Mac & Paddy Power)
Luis Vaz de Torres / Outback Ruler @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)
Luis Vaz de Torres / Use Your Filbert @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Bet365, Betway & Stan James)