Double Dutch, 22nd June 2015
A pair of runners-up as as good as it got on Saturday for the 550th edition of the Double Dutch, meaning we were unable to end a good week on a high.
As is often the case the margins between victory and defeat were narrow, with our runners coming 0.75 lengths an a neck away from landing the double.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Subversive : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Luis Vaz de Torres : 6th at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Use Your Filbert : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Outback Ruler : 4th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
603 winning selections from 2123 = 28.40%
190 winning bets in 550 days = 34.55%
P/L : +112.58pts (+10.24% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
First day of the week looks like this…
Zamperini sets the standard on form and looked a different animal to last season when returning from a 215-day absence to step up to today’s trip at Nottingham last out. Although he was well held by the eventual winner who got first run, he did stay on strongly to get to within two lengths at the post.
Trainer Mike Morris has a decent record at this track and with Zamperini expected to come on for having had that outing three weeks ago, he’s got to be the one to beat at 2/1 BOG here today.
I’m not too keen on any of the others with previous racing experience, so I’m going to take Marco Botti’s expensive (105,000 guineas) yearling Le Notre. He’s well bred and as a half brother to a couple of winners at around today’s trip has to be respected. Marco Botti also has a good record at this track and in a weak looking contest, Le Notre could quite well make a winning debut at 7/2 BOG.
Tilstarr arrives here in the best form, having won at Brighton two starts ago and has two runner-up finishes in her last five starts. She was denied a clear run at Goodwood last time out, but ran on strongly to get to within 2.5 lengths of the winner back in 4th place onve she got some daylight.
With fewer rivals to face here, there should be less traffic to get stuck behind (all her wins have been is small fields) and her cause is aided by only running against her own sex today in a weaker race than last time out. Tilstarr at 11/4 BOG (generally) is the call here.
Of the rest, I’d suggest Dutch S to be the nearest challenger if things go to plan from a “least worst rival” sort of perspective. She at least hasn’t been tried at this trip and failed in the past unlike the others, so I’m working on the unknown being better than the other runners’ failures!
She has looked a bit pedestrian at trips of 6 to 8 furlongs in the past and decidedly one paced in a finish, but that would possibly lend itself to her stepping up to 12 furlongs here today, woth a little more eemphasis on stamina. A 2lb drop in weight should also help Dutch S here today and if you like her, she’s available at 3/1 BOG in most places.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Zamperini / Tilstarr @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : Bet365, Betfred & SkyBet)
Zamperini / Dutch S @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : Betfair SB)
Le Notre / Tilstarr @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Bet365 & Hills)
Le Notre / Dutch S @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Hills)