Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2015
We kicked the new week off with a narrow defeat as the 5/2 (adv 7/2) Orlando Rogue was run down and collared in the shadow of the post. It was a brave and gallant, if ultimately unsuccessful effort to win the race from the front with 5f of the 7 to run, but close shaves don’t pay my bills!
It’s a point dropped in reality and one I’d like back ASAP. Hopefully, I’ll have it after Tuesday’s…
A Class 5 maiden hurdle over 2m 5.5f on good ground where I’ve just taken 3/1 BOG about Jeremy Scott’s steadily improving 5yr old mare, Midnight Mint.
Jeremy Scott isn’t the busiest of trainers with regards to actual numbers of runners (that’s not to say he’s not busy at the yard!), but in the past two months he has had 7 winners for 31 runners (22.6% SR) and 18 of those runners have made the frame (58.1% SR).
Since 2008, his hurdlers priced at 5/4 to 7/1 (you never know where early-priced 3/1 maidens will end up!) are 62/229 (27.1% SR) for 70.6pts (+30.9% ROI) which are pretty impressive results and he’s clearly found a niche for himself. With today’s race in mind, those figures stack up as follows…
- on good ground : 24/75 (32% SR) for 48.8pts (+65.1% ROI)
- at class 5 level : 11/25 (44% SR) for 19.9pts (+79.4% ROI)
- here at Newton Abbot : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 5.9pts (+36.9% ROI)
- in maidens : 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 20.4pts (+136% ROI)
Midnight Mint came back from a 15-week break to gove a career best performance in a 2m5f novice hurdle at Kempton in early May and bettered that next/last time out with another third place finish 3 weeks later (30 days ago) at Uttoxeter, where she raced prominently and was only caught and heaed late on by better horse than she’ll face today.
Those last two decent efforts were both in and around today’s trip and both at Class 4 and the drop in class today should make a difference for her if the jockey from last time, Liam Heard adopts similar tactics.
So, we know the trip is fine and she’s running well enough whiolst improving and now drops in class, but the clincher for me is her “dad”.
She’s by Midnight Legend, as you’ll all know by know is one of my favourite sires. I’ll start by reminding you that if you backed all of his offspring in every race since the start of 2008, you wouldn’t have had a losing year! In numerical terms 2797 runners have produce 411 winners (14.7% SR) for 737.4pts at an ROI of 26.4% and that’s from blind, unfiltered backing.
I appreciate that not all of you would want around 370 bets a year from one micro-system and there are hundreds of ways of breaking the data down, but I’m going to use the parameters of today’s contest to whittle 2797 runners down to 37 in seven simple, logical steps.
Once you arrive at a number of selections you’re comfortable with, there’s your own little micro! OK, so we have 411 winners from 2797 (14.7% SR) for 737.4pts at 26.4% : let’s go!
- female offspring are 177/1197 (14.8% SR) for 325.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which…
- hurdlers are 96/706 (13.6% SR) for 152.7pts (+21.6% ROI), of which…
- those aged 5/6 yrs old are 62/365 (17% SR) for 91.6pts (+22.4% ROI), of which…
- those at trips of 21f to 25f are 36/173 (20.8% SR) for 88.9pts (+51.4% ROI), of which…
- class 4/5 runners are 27/132 (20.5% SR) for 55.5pts (+42.1% ROI), of which…
- good ground runners are 14/58 (24.1% SR) for 52.3pts (+90.1% ROI) and finally…
- those priced below 12/1 are 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 73.3pts (+198% ROI).
And breathe! 😀
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